The Australian economy is in a "per capita" recession - but does it matter?
A slower-than-expected GDP print in Australia has caused economists to reprice their forecasts for the local economy. It's now generally accepted that Australia is either in a per capita recession - or at the very least - the start of a period of below-trend economic growth.
So does that matter for investors? Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO and chairman, certainly thinks so - he thinks the probability of a global recession is still at 65%!
Ahead of the next episode of Livewire's Signal or Noise on Tuesday, we thought we'd take a closer look at the key data points and market-moving quotes that have shaped markets over the last month with the help of our esteemed guests:
AMP deputy chief economist (and series regular) Diana Mousina, Fidelity International's Lukasz de Pourbaix, and UBS Asset Management's Tom Nash.
Note: This Rapid Fire was taped on Wednesday 27 March 2024. The full Signal or Noise episode will be live on Tuesday 2 April 2024.
Are the following signals or noise?
- Australian GDP grew just 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- Consumer inflation expectations recently hit a two-year low, according to the ANZ’s weekly survey.
- The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate for the first time in 17 years - what does this mean. for Australian investors?
- The ASX 200’s volatility index is sitting at near-five-year lows and the CNN Fear and Greed Index has been screening “greedy” for four months.
- Finally, Jamie Dimon thinks that the chance of a US recession is 65% - twice the level at which the market is pricing it.
More from Signal or Noise
Big opinions about the big picture. Each month, Australia's best macro minds duke it out over the big stories making headlines and explain what it means for your money.
- What would you change if you were Treasurer for a day?
- What will the RBA do next? (And what does it mean for your money?)
- 3 things investors should watch for in next week's Federal Budget
- 7 commodities (and 8 stocks) to watch in this complex market
4 topics
2 contributors mentioned