Federal Reserve

IMF analysis suggests that the Fed is too optimistic on the likely impact of initial Trump tariffs.

The Michigan survey showed consumer unemployment expectations at recession-like levels with a tariff-driven spike in inflation expectations.

The correction under way in US equities has started from a point of extremely expensive valuations relative to earnings and bond yields.

Its impact upon stocks – and of stocks upon it – has long been scant. Investors should ignore it and those who try to predict its actions.

US public debt is likely to reach a record share of GDP as tariff revenue and economic growth are unlikely to pay for Trump policies.

Barring last-minute changes, the US is imposing punitive tariffs on its close ally Canada, Mexico, and China, with a EU tariff to come.

The Fed expects inflation will take longer to return to target, with upside risks reflecting recent firmer inflation and Trump policies.

The Fed should forecast fewer rate cuts given firmer inflation, resilient economic growth, and the inflationary impact of Trump policies.

The RBA never raised rates by as much as other countries, so it has relatively less scope to cut them in a soft economic landing.

On the next Signal or Noise, we discuss what the Fed's first rate cut in four years means for Australian investors.

The Fed’s aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, while unconventional, reflects a proactive approach to stave off any potential economic weakness. Despite associations of...

The Fed hopes it can achieve a soft landing, lowering the policy rate to around 3%, broadly matching its estimate of the neutral rate.

The 50-basis point cut was a last-minute surprise that left markets scratching their heads about how to react.

Rate cuts are coming. The Fed needs to get ahead of the curve but the economy is slowing rapidly. That leaves risks elevated for investors.

Soft landings are exceedingly rare in the US and the 1990s episode marks the only example of a successful soft landing.

Improving inflation is consistent with the Fed cutting rates next month, while a hawkish-sounding RBA plans to keep rates on hold.

Despite looking at virtually the same sets of figures, economists often have different opinions about the outlook.

Weaker demand for labour explains higher unemployment in most countries, but Australia's jobless rate has edged up on increased supply.

The US unemployment rate has edged above most estimates of the NAIRU for the first time since 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut next month.

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.