2 ASX mining stocks that could double (or more) in a year

The Materials sector has been the ASX's second-worst performer over the last year, and is still 10.15% down over 12 months despite a decent recovery from the recent tariff-led selloffs.

But it remains a popular hunting ground for those looking for high-risk, high-reward plays. 

Here are Shaw and Partners' two speculative mining stock plays with huge upside potential. 

#1 Metro Mining (ASX: MMI)

• Current price: $0.05
• 12-month price target: $0.17
• Potential upside: 256.3%
• Market cap: $285 million

Brisbane-based Metro Mining operates the Bauxite Hills Mine in western Cape York and may be primed to benefit from both rising bauxite prices and increased yields.

Bauxite is the world’s main source of aluminium, which has seen strong demand from China, but also experienced significant volatility.

After shipping 2,056kt of bauxite in the December quarter, Metro Mining is now forecast to ship 2,250kt in the December 2025 quarter. Revenue is forecasted to grow from $104.9 million to $139.5 million in the same period.

Despite being likely to have ended the March quarter with $90 million debt against $12.2 million in cash, Shaw and Partners believes Metro Mining will be net cash positive by the September quarter this year.

It forecasts Metro Mining’s free cash flow at around $174 million in CY25 thanks to reduced operating costs and higher production.

Metro Mining is also well-positioned to benefit from strong Chinese demand for aluminium, given its proximity to mainland China. But it does face competition from Chinese-backed bauxite production in Guinea, as well as operational risks from its planned production expansion from 3.5Mt to 7Mt.

#2 Santana Minerals Ltd (ASX: SMI)

• Current price: $0.56
• 12-month price target: $1.36
• Potential upside: 142%
• Market cap: $357 million

Santana’s March quarterly activities report has revealed a number of positive developments for the Australian precious metals explorer, with Shaw and Partners maintaining a price target of $1.36 a share.

The company has updated its mineral resource estimate (MRE) in New Zealand’s Rise and Shine valley to show an improved inventory of 1.5Moz of gold (at 2.5g/t Au), revised up from 1.4Moz (at 2.4g/t Au).

It has also lodged a mining permit application in New Zealand for its Bendigo-Ophir project in Central Otago, and will be submitted under a “fast-track” application in June. It is the single largest gold deposit discovered in New Zealand in more than 40 years.

Santana also finished the quarter with $55.4 in cash and was added to the All Ordinaries Index as part of the March rebalance.

There remain risks around Santana’s ability to bring the Rise and Shine project into production and its profitability is subject to the volatility of gold, which is currently at record highs.