Aussie house prices now down 7.1%, and falling at a 14.6% annual pace
Aussie home values have now lost 7.1% from their May peak (at the time of the first RBA hike), and have been falling at a 14.6% annual pace over the last three months according to CoreLogic data to 12 November. The singular driver of this correction in prices has been the record interest rate increases from the RBA. Sydney prices have crashed more than 10.7% while dwelling values in Brisbane are catching up quickly having lost 7.1% since the later June peak. Brisbane home values are currently dropping at a very sharp 20.4% annual rate based on the last three months of data while the losses in Sydney have slowed somewhat to a still very striking 18.2% annual pace. The correction in the Melbourne market has been more sedate, summing to a 6.7% loss to date, and an 11.2% annual pace over the last three months. Dwelling values in Adelaide and Perth have also commenced a very gradual slide, which is still cumulatively less than 1% thus far. The recent deceleration in the speed of losses, which are still notably running at a record clip, might be a function of seasonality given house prices typically perform more strongly between September and December. It will, therefore, be interesting to watch how the market travels over the seasonally weak summer months. With the RBA likely to hike by another 25bps in December and possibly February, there is undoubtedly a lot more pain to come. This will be accentuated by the conversion of about $500 billion in home loans from fixed- to variable-rate over 2023, which will result in these households experiencing a huge increase in their mortgage rates from circa 2.0-2.25% to 5.0-6.0%. Our October 2011 forecast for a peak-to-trough correction of 15-25% nationally remains unchanged.
Never miss an update
Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know.
Stay up to date with my current content by
following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire
Chris co-founded Coolabah in 2011, which today runs over $8 billion with a team of 40 executives focussed on generating credit alpha from mispricings across fixed-income markets. In 2019, Chris was selected as one of FE fundinfo’s Top 10 “Alpha Managers” based on his risk-adjusted performance throughout his career across. He previously worked for Goldman Sachs in London and Sydney, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and founded the award‐winning research/investment group, Rismark. He has regularly advised governments, developing unique policy proposals. Chris graduated with the University Medal (Economics & Finance) from Sydney University. He studied in the PhD program at Cambridge University in 2002/03, leaving to set up his funds business.
........
Investment Disclaimer
Past performance does not assure future returns. All investments carry risks, including that the value of investments may vary, future returns may differ from past returns, and that your capital is not guaranteed. This information has been prepared by Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd (ACN 153 327 872). It is general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice. You should not rely on any information herein in making any investment decisions. To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) for the funds should be considered before deciding whether to acquire or hold units in it. A PDS for these products can be obtained by visiting www.coolabahcapital.com. Neither Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd, EQT Responsible Entity Services Ltd (ACN 101 103 011), Equity Trustees Ltd (ACN 004 031 298) nor their respective shareholders, directors and associated businesses assume any liability to investors in connection with any investment in the funds, or guarantees the performance of any obligations to investors, the performance of the funds or any particular rate of return. The repayment of capital is not guaranteed. Investments in the funds are not deposits or liabilities of any of the above-mentioned parties, nor of any Authorised Deposit-taking Institution. The funds are subject to investment risks, which could include delays in repayment and/or loss of income and capital invested. Past performance is not an indicator of nor assures any future returns or risks. Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 and is an authorised representative #001277030 of EQT Responsible Entity Services Ltd that holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 223271. Equity Trustees Ltd that holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 240975.
Forward-Looking Disclaimer
This presentation contains some forward-looking information. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements necessarily involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual performance and financial results in future periods to differ materially from any projections of future performance or result expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Although forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are based upon what Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd believes are reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management’s estimates or opinions should change except as required by applicable securities laws. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
2 topics
Chris co-founded Coolabah in 2011, which today runs over $8 billion with a team of 40 executives focussed on generating credit alpha from mispricings across fixed-income markets. In 2019, Chris was selected as one of FE fundinfo’s Top 10 “Alpha...
Expertise
Chris co-founded Coolabah in 2011, which today runs over $8 billion with a team of 40 executives focussed on generating credit alpha from mispricings across fixed-income markets. In 2019, Chris was selected as one of FE fundinfo’s Top 10 “Alpha...
Expertise
Comments
Comments
Sign In or Join Free to comment
most popular
Equities
Why "buy and manage" is the better way to invest in stocks
Livewire Markets
