Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks likely to surprise to the upside this reporting season

First up today, we have Goodman Group. The market loves this stock right now, 67% of the brokers who cover the stock rate it as a buy. James, I'm going to start with you today. Is it a buy, hold or sell?

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

We've seen it in AI over in the US. It's hot money. It gets impatient around when the earnings will flow from that theme. So right now Goodman's been bid up on what I think is a really good strategy moving forward, but it's now comes down to delivering earnings and there's often a delay between those earnings coming through. So that's why I would have it as a hold. And we've got a small weighting still.

Henry Jennings (HOLD): It's a tricky one, isn't it? I've got to agree with James on the hold, only because it is such a massive part of the REITs sector, but it has run 71% for what we used to call a property trust. This was the dull, boring sector of the market, and a lot of the extra kicker has been based on this data centre push. That's not going to happen overnight. You've got to build the things and that requires quite a lot of capital. 

It's founder-lead. It's very successful. It's done an extraordinary good job. We hold it in the portfolios, but I think it wouldn't come out as a sell, but it would come out as just being a little bit cautious. The expectations are high.

Ally Selby: Okay, its share price has lifted around 27% over the last 12 months. Over to you James. Is it a buy, hold or sell?

So for me, it's probably an FY26 earnings recovery story rather than FY25. I think you can be patient, it's obviously been volatile in share price. So it had a big decline in share price when its operational metrics and its guidance struggled. They've got the investment community back on board after a strategy day and they talked to their longer-term plans and how they're going to guide the business moving forward. And I think all that has a real high degree of validity and I think the strategy is a good one. I think from a timing point of view, you can wait until the back end of FY25.

Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL)

James Gerrish (BUY): Ally, it's a buy for us. I like stocks that have got that mixed view from analysts. So when all analysts view the stock as a buy, I think that leaves a void of new buyers in a stock and the share price can actually go the other way. So we own this stock, bought it in May, straight off the bat, it dropped 10% after we bought it down to about $12. It's now well and truly up to the $15 mark. So they had a couple of issues internally that hurt them, a couple of scandals internally, and they highlighted some issues around second-half margins that could potentially play into this result.

Henry Jennings (HOLD): Well, I had it as a hold, but the more I listened to James... it was very compelling. That's what I love about this. You start with one view and you end up listening to somebody else and you think, "You know what? He's probably right." For me, I think I'm going to keep it as a hold. 

We're all getting very excited at the moment about the Olympics, so we're all going to rush off to Rebel Sport, aren't we? And we're going to buy new trainers and we're going to get in the pool. It's chilly out as well. Macpac should do quite well out of puffer jackets. There are some corporate governance issues swirling around them, which does tend to hold me back a little bit. And retail is going to be interesting because we've been hearing about this mortgage cliff.

Henry Jennings: We're blaming it all on you.

Henry Jennings: Yes, and you blame it on us.

James Gerrish (BUY): Well, I've got two daughters who love Lovisa, so they've been spending big in LOV, so that could be an omen. I think that the thing that I'd focus on when we're thinking about a surprise, which is always risky to do, but thinking about the expectations that are priced into the stock. 

So CAR Group is the one I'd flag today, simply because if I think about the last five or six months, the stock's done nothing. The stock's done nothing because their customers are hurting. So the car dealers are hurting, they've got too much inventory and they're being pressured around their ability to spend.