Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks spewing out a hell of a lot of cash

Is cash flow really king? You'll find out in this episode of Buy Hold Sell.
Buy Hold Sell

Livewire Markets

Investors are looking for businesses in net cash positions. This means that after a business receives all its revenues, pays its bills and funds whatever it needs, there will be a positive cash read on its balance sheet. 

Why does this matter? Well, companies with positive and growing cash flows can hire talented people, invest in innovation, make acquisitions, buy back shares and pay dividends. 

It's a great measure that allows investors to get a good look at how well a company is balancing its earnings against its expenses... And there are some companies on the ASX that are currently spewing out a hell of a lot of cash. 

So, in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Perpetual's Nathan Hughes and Hayborough Investment Partners' Ben Rundle for their analysis of three highly cash-generative stocks - including Helia Group (ASX: HLI), Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) and Nick Scali (ASX: NCK). 

Plus, they each name two cash flow kings of their own. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was recorded on Wednesday 14 August 2024. You can watch the video, listen to the podcast or read an edited transcript below.


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Edited Transcript 

Ally Selby: Hey, how are you doing? And welcome to Livewire's Buy Hold Sell. I'm Ally Selby, and today we're going to be finding out if cash really is king. We'll be analysing five companies that are spewing out a shitload of cash. And to do that, we're joined by Ben Rundle from Hayborough Investment Partners and Nathan Hughes from Perpetual.

First up today we have Helia Group, which was formerly Genworth Mortgage Insurance. It provides lenders mortgage insurance in Australia. Nathan, I'm going to start with you today. Is it a buy, hold or sell?

Helia Group (ASX: HLI)

Nathan Hughes (HOLD): It's a hold. There is a lot of cash coming out of this business at the moment, and shareholders are getting a 10% fully frank yield, plus the benefit of buybacks. They're well-provisioned for the current climate. The reason it's a hold is a little quirk - the top line is slowing, so actually, Helia is writing less business, which is going to be a bit of a headwind for the outer years. There is some value on offer, but a lot of that valuation upside is closed, so it's a hold.

Ally Selby: Its share price is up around 5% over the last 12 months. Ben, over to you. Is it a buy, hold or sell?

Ben Rundle (HOLD): I will agree with Nathan and say a hold. I think the management team have done a good job. The valuation is not extreme. I just don't have enough conviction to call it a buy. CBA, their largest customer, has put their contract essentially up for review. I don't think they miss out on that, but I guess it's a risk, and I don't really have confidence either way. So, I'll sit on the fence and call it a hold.


Nick Scali (ASX: NCK)

Ally Selby: Next up today we have Nick Scali, which is still spewing out cash post-COVID, albeit at a slower rate. It's expected to pump out $125 million in operating cash flow in FY24. Ben, is it a buy, hold or sell?

Ben Rundle (BUY): Nick Scali is a buy for me. They have a great opportunity to roll out their Plush business in Australia, and they've shown early signs of a lot of success in doing that. They also acquired a business in the UK called Fabb Furniture. And Fabb has a gross margin that's significantly below where Nick Scali is. So I think that once they get into that business, turn it into more of a Nick Scali-style business, get it bigger, get buying power, they'll get that gross margin up. It also has a low store footprint, so there's room for growth there too. So a good one to buy, I think.

Ally Selby: Okay. Its share price is up around 18% over the past 12 months. Nathan, is it a buy, hold or sell?

Nathan Hughes (BUY): I agree, I think it's a buy as well for all those reasons. The beauty of the Nick Scali model is it's quite inventory-light. So when a customer purchases a couch, they pay a deposit and the balance on completion of the delivery, which is typically 12 weeks out, which means the company doesn't have to carry a lot of inventory. So the rollout of Plush here or Fabb in the UK is very capital-light, which means great cash generation for shareholders and dividends for us, but the company is still able to grow over the medium term.


Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC)

Ally Selby: Okay. Last up today we have Whitehaven Coal, which is expected to deliver around $2 billion in operating cash flows, plus a big chunk of cash coming from the 20% selldown of their Blackwater asset. Last one for you today, Nathan. Is it a buy, hold or sell?

Nathan Hughes: I was going to say hold, but I changed my mind.

Ally Selby: Last minute!

Nathan Hughes (BUY): Yeah, I think it's a buy. There's a company transforming acquisition that they did earlier in the year, but importantly, they didn't issue any equity to do that. They were able to use their balance sheet. They do have some deferred payments to make over the coming years, but the cash flow generation from the assets should be quite strong to enable them to do that. The stock's probably on a free cash flow yield of 20%, which makes it hard to go past.

Ally Selby: Most of the commodity/resources market hasn't done well over the last 12 months, but Whitehaven's up 9%. Ben, over to you. Is it a buy, hold or sell?

Ben Rundle (BUY): I think it's a buy, too. The company did drown itself in cash through that period when the coal price did really well. As a result, as Nathan pointed out, they were able to make an acquisition without any equity dilution, essentially doubling the size of their business. There's a sell-down coming from the Blackwater asset, so more cash coming in the door, and I think they'll have the balance sheet back to a net cash position pretty shortly, so a buy for me.


Ally Selby: Okay. We asked our guests to bring along a stock that is spewing out a hell of a lot of cash. Ben, what have you brought for us?

Redox (ASX: RDX)

Ben Rundle (BUY): I think Redox is a good opportunity. So they listed about 12 months ago, and because of an inventory unwind, they drowned themselves in cash, essentially, as part of that process. So they sat on about $180 million in cash at the result six months ago. I think at the coming result, that'll be even higher. It's a huge amount of cash for a very capital-light business. So I think if you subtract that cash from the market cap and put it on a valuation, I think it's on about a 15 times P/E. So for a company that has over 20% returns on capital, I think that's a pretty reasonable valuation to pay.


Ally Selby: Okay. Over to you Nathan, which is your cash spewing stock for today?

McMillan Shakespeare (ASX: MMS)

Nathan Hughes (BUY): My stock is McMillan Shakespeare - a salary packaging company primarily, but also with a business in NDIS plan management and a small commercial leasing business. This is another very capital-light business. The core salary packaging business virtually requires no capital and certainly no capital investment to grow. So they're able to generate a lot of free cash with that. A lot of that capital just comes straight back to us as shareholders.

The stock is trading on a P/E of 12. We think earnings will be well-supported in the near term, both from that business but also from end-of-lease profits in the commercial book. And the dividend yield is 9% fully franked because they can pay that straight out to shareholders. So, that's something that has generated a lot of cash and we continue to see it generating cash in the future.


Ally Selby: Well, that's all we have time for today. I hope you enjoyed that special of Buy Hold Sell as much as I did. If you did, why not give it a like? Remember to subscribe to our podcast and YouTube channels. We're adding so much great content just like this every single week.

Which cash cow are you backing? 

Nathan has named McMillan Shakespeare and Ben has chosen Redox as their cash king stocks, but we'd love to know what you are backing. Let us know in the comments section below. 

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