Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks with controversial leaders
Locally, founder-led businesses have been making headlines for all the wrong reasons. Take the downfall of Australian tech billionaire Richard White of WiseTech Global, for example, or the tax scandal claims circling Mineral Resources' Chris Ellison.
On the global stage, founders can be far more divisive. Elon Musk is now being sued by Philadelphia's district attorney over his US$1 million daily election giveaways in a bid to boost Donald Trump's election campaign. In response, he posted a photo of a daily winner with a cheque on his social media platform X. Meanwhile, scandals seem to continuously orbit Facebook/Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg - who has been accused of (among other things) being a robot.
In China, Alibaba's founder and leather jacket enthusiast Jack Ma literally disappeared after criticising the Chinese government. Many thought he was dead.
So, is it worth investing in companies with controversial CEOs, founders and leaders? Or should investors be focusing on companies with leaders who have their heads down and are focusing on business growth instead?
To find out, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Antipodes' Jacob Mitchell and Magellan's Arvid Streimann.
Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 23 October 2024. You can watch the video, listen the podcast or read an edited transcript below.
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Edited Transcript
First up today we have Tesla. Should be no surprise, as CEO Elon Musk has been making headlines recently after pledging to give away $1 million a day to voters who pledge to his PAC's petition. Not sure if that's actually legal. Arvid, I'm going to start with you today. Is Tesla a buy, hold, or sell?
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)
I'm sure that he's going to do a lot of stuff that's positive, but I'm not sure that you really want to be there for the ups and the downs. So, I would say that it's a sell. And we know that he's always talking a big game, but I'm not sure that that's what I really want to buy.
Ally Selby: It has been very up and down over the last 12 months and share price is now up around 3%. Jacob, is it a buy, hold, or sell?
Jacob Mitchell (SELL): It's a sell, mainly because it's a very tough business to win in. Making automobiles of any flavour is just highly, highly competitive. And they had a strong position in the US, but the problem is US consumers don't want to buy EVs. They want to buy hybrids. So, they're losing share to hybrids, to Toyota, to Hyundai, in their best market.And then outside the US, they have nowhere near the same market share. It's just hyper-competitive. And they're up against very, very competent Chinese EV makers, and the Europeans are coming with EVs as well. So it's a very, very competitive market, and not reflected in the multiple at 70 times PE, and 8 times sales.
And then you have Elon. And he's a maverick, but at the moment, I think his energies are really focused elsewhere, and you can see it in the way that the product is slipping and the autonomous driving robotaxi fiasco. I mean, they are really lagging on their technology pathway. So, definitely a sell.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)
Jacob Mitchell (HOLD): We own Meta. It's certainly a position we've reduced our weighting in as the stock has become more expensive. At 24 times, I think it's a hold. It's definitely an AI beneficiary. It's a company that's capitalising on AI in its ad tech. So they're growing revenue and they're reducing cost through the application of AI in the core business. The Llama models are powering their WhatsApp, they're being used right across the business - very exciting.
Zuckerberg cops a lot of flak in traditional media, but that's because he's taking their ad dollars. As a controller of the company, we think he generally does the right thing on a long-term view, but that's also the risk, as we saw when the stock traded on 10 times, because he continued to invest in a weaker economy. So, you have to keep that in mind.
Arvid Streimann (BUY): Buy. They collect data and I would say that the data they collect is probably the most valuable in the world, because you've got people with high frequency and a lot of people telling the Facebook properties what they're feeling. I think this is better data than what Google gets, which is knowing what people want to Google search. I think this is very valuable data, and they obviously have billions of people around the world who use their properties regularly, and that number's still growing. So I'd say that their engagement and their data collection are very powerful.
But then you've got to use that data, and I think that they're very good at it. Their advertising return on investment, or basically the bang for your buck you get for spending on their advertising properties is very high. And I think that they've got a bit of a moat around that because they're investing to make sure that that return on investment doesn't collapse. So, if you look at those two things, I'd say this is a pretty strong company. The valuation doesn't look expensive to us.
And then kind of like what Jacob was talking about, we weren't big fans of him spending on the Metaverse. He's kind of pulled that back a little bit. So that's a positive as well.
Intel (NYSE: INTC)
Arvid Streimann (SELL): This one's a sell for me and I'll tell you why. So I think you're right. He came back a bit of a messiah. But at the end of the day, I think Intel is facing a very tough situation here. They used to be one of the leaders in manufacturing. Through executional and strategic missteps, they've lost that mantle. And I think it's very hard for them to get that back. And in fact, no company which has ever fallen off the leading edge has ever made it back.
They'd be the first company that's ever done that. The US government even tried to help them out by cutting them some checks out of their CHIPS Act but it wasn't enough. This is a very big and expensive thing that they have to do.
If you're going to buy Intel right now, you are relying on the company reversing all of their strategic and executional missteps, and you also have to wait and hope that guys like TSMC and AMD actually blow themselves up, and they're doing quite well. So, I think this is a pretty hard line to walk. It's a sell for us.
Ally Selby: Okay. The stock's down around 34% over the last 12 months. Jacob, are you seeing any value there? It sounds pretty scary to be investing in that company right now. Is it a buy, hold, or sell?Jacob Mitchell (SPECULATIVE BUY): It's a buy, in brackets, speculative. And we don't own it in the funds. We certainly looked at it from a lot of different angles. And I agree with what Arvid is saying with one difference. Inside of Intel is a really strong design business. And Intel still has, let's call it, roughly 60% market share in CPUs in the data centre, and they have 70% in PCs. So, they are still very dominant.
What's dragging it back is its lack of competitiveness in manufacturing. So when we look at that and we think, "Okay, can they fix that?" Even today, Samsung and Intel are in discussion in terms of trying to potentially merge or cooperate on foundry to get back to their competitive position. I think it's too big to fail in foundry, which is why Uncle Sam is writing checks to them, and I think will continue to write checks to them.
Think about the geopolitical situation. Even with TSMC putting fabs in the US, more than 90% of the world semiconductors come from Taiwan in logic and from one company. That is not acceptable to the governments of the world, and that's why we think, on a sum of the parts perspective, there's upside in Intel. There's a lot of hidden value there, which gets unleashed to the extent you can restructure the foundry business, which we think you ultimately can.
Alibaba (NYSE: BABA)
Jacob Mitchell (BUY): Look, we think Alibaba is a good example of a company that had a very high-profile leader and founder, Jack Ma, who-
Ally Selby: Disappeared off the face of the earth.Jacob Mitchell: Yes. And for a while there, he was sort of allowed to leave China and enjoy life. The running of the company, really was about whether it was going to make a transition and whether it was strong enough to survive in the more competitive e-commerce environment that has emerged in China.
We own the stock. We think it's really interesting as a strong platform company. Retail in China is highly concentrated, not just e-commerce, but all retail. The biggest retailers in China are the e-commerce platforms. Alibaba has 40% of e-commerce, but it's arguably almost 15% of total retail. Find a retailer in the world that has that level of wallet! At 12 times with a focus on really deploying AI and monetizing the tail in Taobao, they're turning it around. They're growing GMV (gross merchandise value). It's what you would call in the US, a high-quality company that would trade on 25 times, which is available on 12 times. So yes, definitely a buy.
Ally Selby: Okay. Over to you Arvid. What controversially-led stock are you backing today and why?Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX)
Arvid Streimann (BUY): I'm going to say Netflix. And I would say that the co-founder, Reed Hastings, is not famous because he ended up in jail or he disappeared or anything like that, but I think that the way that he operates is quite controversial. He's quite an upfront person. You get very direct feedback. And so I think that's interesting in terms of the corporate culture that flourishes underneath him.But in terms of Netflix in general, I think we all know what Netflix is and we all use it - whether we pay for it or not. Netflix has scale and its first-mover advantage in streaming services I think enabled that leading position. But once it's got scale and it's got the quality of the slate or the content that goes onto the system, then I think that you can squeeze out the competitors, and I think you're already seeing this.
Go back a couple of years, it seemed like everyone was starting up a streaming service. It seems like now the industry is starting to consolidate. So I think that this is going to lead to less competition, and Netflix is the genuine winner here in our minds - or one of the genuine winners.
And the interesting thing here is if you think about how much you pay for Netflix, I think it's pretty cheap. All-you-can-eat TV for not much money. Compare that to what people pay for pay TV, and I think there's a bit of a gap there. That means that the growth-led strategy, which used to be from signing up subscribers, is going to shift to raising prices, essentially. And I think there's a lot of runway left to do that.
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