Fed pause won’t save the day

Fed pause amidst economic uncertainty?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates 25 basis points at its May policy meeting, taking the upper end of its target to 5.25%. The Fed also indicated that it may pause rate hikes as it observes how the economy is reacting to its ongoing policy moves. We agree with the Fed that the outlook is uncertain: weak manufacturing, regional bank turmoil and declining corporate profitability are coinciding with a resilient labor market and consumer spending.

Our view is that there is a high probability that US growth will continue to weaken and enter recession later this year. We continue to rely on leading economic indicators, where the growth rate is at a negative level that has historically coincided with US recessions.

Exhibit 1: Leading Economic Indicators at Recessionary Levels

US Economic Indicators: Leading vs. Coincident Indexes

January 1960–March 2023

Multi-asset implications of a Fed pause

Despite the economic uncertainty, a natural question arises: Can a Fed pause propel risk assets higher? Looking back on 2022, it’s fair to say that increasingly restrictive monetary policy caused much of the weak asset performance. Shouldn’t risky assets rally if “peak Fed” is in place?

Historically, we have seen a rally across asset classes following a peak in the fed funds rate. Many assets—Treasuries, corporate credit and equities—have done well. Notably, equities, which should outperform less risky assets over time, perform slightly worse than both.

Exhibit 2: Most Assets Have Rallied Around Peak Fed Funds Rate

Asset Performance Around Peak Fed Funds Rate

August 1971–December 2019

Digging further, our hunch is that not all Fed pauses are created equal. Some occur with varying levels of growth and inflation and at different stages of the business cycle. We focus on the business cycle and use the yield curve as a method to further classify Fed pauses. We also look at Fed pauses that were eventually followed by recessions in the next year. What we find confirms our hunch—the later we are in the business cycle, as highlighted by an inverted yield curve, the worse equity performance has been. If a recession eventually follows a Fed pause, equity performance tends to be outright negative.

Exhibit 3: Peak Fed Funds Rates Occur in Varying Macro Environments

Peak Fed Funds Rates and the Macro Environment

Exhibit 4: Business Cycle Factors Can Overwhelm Fed Policy

S&P 500 Performance Around Peak Fed Funds Rate

August 1971–December 2019

Portfolio implications

We often debate whether growth or policy is a more important factor for risky asset performance. Over the past few years, it has felt like interest rates and Fed policy have been powerful drivers. The analysis above suggests that a Fed pause will not save the day for risky assets like equities, and that it is more prudent to be allocated to safer assets, like Treasuries and cash. We pay careful consideration to where we are in the business cycle and when our forecast of recession risk is high; these considerations further the case against equities. If the United States enters a recession, weak growth is likely to trump any policy easing. We remain positioned defensively in our portfolios, favoring assets like Treasuries and cash over equities. Within equities and credit, we currently prefer higher- quality assets.

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