How to choose excellent fund managers
They say that past performance isn't a reliable indicator of future performance - but Wilsons Advisory's David Cassidy doesn't believe that to be the case.
He argues that investors should look to three "Ps" when assessing excellent fund managers: performance, process and people.
"We look for a track record - a relatively consistent track record over a relatively long period of time," he explains.
"We look at the process. Do we understand the process? Does it make sense? Is it logical?
And are we comfortable with the people? Are there people who've generated the performance historically? That's an important point for us as well."
This is particularly important now, given that small and mid-cap stocks have started to rebound on investor hopes for Fed and RBA rate cuts later this year. And as Cassidy explains, a broad-brush index approach will likely disappoint.
"Small caps are an alpha market more so than a beta market. Particularly in Australia, when you look at the small-cap benchmark, at the long-term performance, it's fairly uninspiring," he adds.
In this episode of The Pitch, Cassidy shares why he believes small caps can continue on their trajectory higher over the coming months, as well as why an active approach is key to take advantage of this recovery.
Note: This video was filmed on Tuesday 9 April 2024. You can watch the video or read an edited transcript below.
Let's talk small and mids. They've recently underperformed their large-cap counterparts. Do you feel like that could reverse in 2024?
Globally, we've still got this obsession with mega-cap tech, so smalls are still lagging, albeit when we look at some of the data in the US, I think the equal-weighted S&P outperformed the cap-weighted S&P in March.
That means that the mid-caps are starting to come through. And I think even when you look at it year to date, it's pretty close now between equal-weighted S&P and the cap-weighted. I think there are some signs both in Australia and to a lesser extent in the US that the smalls are starting to perform a little bit better, so that's encouraging.
Could that continue? And are there any historical examples you could point to that remind you of what we're seeing now in markets?
If you look historically when the smalls do well, generally when there's a decent global and domestic growth story and we think that's coming off the back of rate cuts, the valuations look good. Positioning has been quite skewed towards large caps. I think there's scope for that to change. All the pieces are falling into place for better small-cap performance over the next year. As I said, I think it's starting, but things are looking quite good for smalls and mids over the next year or two.
Are there any sectors that you think could lead the charge, and on the other side of that, which could struggle over the next few months?
Can investors use a broad-brush index approach to take advantage of the opportunity in small caps or is a more active approach recommended in this kind of environment?
Really, what you want to buy, particularly in Australia's case, is exposure to good managers. From that perspective, if you look at the history of the best managers in Australia, they've outperformed the small-cap index by a long way, so it's very much an alpha story. But even in the case of global, I think you want to go with an active manager.
They say that past performance isn't a reliable indicator of future performance, so what criteria should investors use to identify those small-cap managers?
Performance, process, and people are key for us.
David Cassidy: Thank you.
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Wilsons Advisory think differently and delves deeper to uncover a broad range of interesting investment opportunities for their clients. To read more of our latest research, visit our Research and Insights.
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