How to make better forecasts

Making accurate predictions is hard, especially about the future. Chris Rands, Portfolio Manager at Nikko Asset Management, says that he likes to focus on demographics when trying to forecast what people will be doing in the future.

“When you try to forecast what somebody would be doing, their age is a very interesting variable. You’re going to do different things at 20 than you are at 60.”

By understanding the number of 60 year olds in an economy compared to the number of 20 year olds, Rands says they’re able to better understand how consumers will spend their money. This has an important impact on growth rates and interest rates in the developed world, which he explains in this video.

Want to hear more?

You can find further insights from Chris and the fixed income team at Nikko here