How your 20 most-tipped ASX stocks performed in 2024

2024 has been a remarkable period for Australian investors, defying expectations and setting new benchmarks. The S&P/ASX 200 achieved seven monthly record closes (assuming December is positive) – the most since 2007 – while Commonwealth Bank soared well beyond analyst predictions, trading comfortably above $150 despite consensus target prices around $90. Meanwhile, tech stocks such as Wisetech, Life360, and Technology One reached unprecedented heights.

At the start of the year, almost 5,000 Livewire and Market Index readers participated in the Outlook Series Survey, and we identified your 20 top-tipped ASX stocks. As with any forecast, the results were a mixed bag – some picks flourished while others floundered. Yet, the survey provides fascinating insights into market expectations and actual performance.

Please note: We are sharing information from the Livewire and Market Index readerships by publishing this list. We hope it inspires ideas for your investment research. This information is not, nor is it intended to be, a set of recommendations. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future return. 

The 20 most-tipped ASX stocks for 2024

At a glance

• Highest total return: Sigma Healthcare (+184.7%), Pro Medicus (+162.2%) and Telix Pharmaceuticals (+143.5%)
• Lowest total return: Neuren Pharmaceuticals (-49.3%), Mineral Resources (-48.6%) and Pilbara Minerals (-38.1%)
• Average total return: +22.1% (or +8.3% on a tip-weighted basis)
• Highest dividend yield: Fortescue (9.7%), Woodside (8.9%), Rio Tinto (6.89%)
• Most popular sectors: Materials (6), Healthcare (6) and Energy (4)
• Number of stocks with a positive return: 7 (35%)
• Average positive return: +87.0%
• Number of stocks with a negative return: 13 (65%)
• Average negative return: -21.2%

CSL – A year of disappointment

CSL (ASX: CSL) was the most tipped stock by far, yet it managed to disappoint investors with equal measure. This underperformance is owed to a long list of headwinds, including:

• CSL missed earnings expectations during both February half-year results and August full-year results, with the stock down 2.7% and 4.5%, respectively, on reporting dates
• The US$12 billion Vifor acquisition has failed to live up to expectations. Vifor generated approximately US$400 million in NPAT in FY24, or a return on invested capital of around 3.7%. This has dragged the company’s ROIC to 10.5% in FY24, down from over 20% in prior years
• CSL shares have declined on fears that the upcoming Trump administration may implement policies that could be negative for its vaccine business, which represents around 15% of the Group's earnings

While CSL's quality as a company is undeniable, price is the only thing that pays—and CSL has been trading sideways for more than five years.

Analysts have consistently maintained bullish price targets, and not without reason. They see a company with consistent earnings growth, promising margin expansion opportunities, strong plasma collection and yield momentum, and a robust R&D pipeline. Yet, these fundamental strengths have failed to translate into better-than-expected earnings and share price momentum.

The bitter-sweet resource sector

Household names like Mineral Resources, Fortescue, and BHP tend to dominate lists like these. However, 2024 told a different story, with the cyclical sector struggling under a storm of challenging economic conditions—a slowing Chinese economy, rising labour costs, a strong US dollar, and ample supply.

A quick glance at the year-to-date performance of key commodities tells the whole story – this was decidedly not the year to bet on resources.

• Iron ore: -20%
• Lithium carbonate: -19.5%
• Uranium: -15%
• Brent crude: -5% 

Despite the challenging market conditions, resource giants like Fortescue, BHP, Woodside, and Santos provided a silver lining with an average dividend yield of 7.7%, helping to cushion the blow of their 21.7% average share price decline. Although another way to view it is that the enticing dividend yield was not worth the share price decline. 

Gangbuster healthcare returns

The top three performing stocks all came from the healthcare sector – Sigma (+184%), Pro Medicus (+162%) and Telix Pharmaceuticals (+143%). But each company found success for different reasons.

The catalyst for Sigma Healthcare (ASX: SIG) was always going to be if the ACCC approved its $8.8 billion merger with Chemist Warehouse. The company made plenty of positive steps this year.

• Following positive feedback from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), the company's shares surged 42% between 27 September and 3 October. As part of the process, the company proposed significant concessions, including allowing franchisees to exit agreements penalty-free for three years.
• On 7 November, shares jumped 25.2% after the ACCC indicated it would not oppose the proposed merger. The next phase involves preparing shareholder documentation for a vote on the transaction.

Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) was just doing Pro Medicus things – robust and above consensus growth, securing major contracts, and maintaining an impressively uptrending share price. Since October 2023, the company has achieved an unprecedented streak of consecutive monthly gains. Some of the company's key highlights for the year include:

• FY24 revenue up 29.3%, to $161.5m (in line with consensus)
• EBIT margin up 230 bps, to 69.5%
• Net profit up 36.5%, to $82.8m (4.5% above consensus)
• Total dividend for FY24 up 33%, to 40 cents per share
• New markets – "We are looking at some new geographic markets. But I think our main focus is currently the US simply because we have so much runway there, and we are making very significant inroads.” – CEO Sam Hupert said at the company's FY24 earnings call
• 100% retention rate – “No, we haven't lost anybody. So our retention rate is 100%."

Telix (ASX: TLX) represents a mix of both earnings growth and progressing two key imaging agents for kidney cancer (Zircaix) and brain cancer (Pixclara).

The company reports its full-year earnings in February, and Bell Potter is forecasting 53% revenue growth to $773 million and NPAT to almost double to $103.4 million.

While healthcare stocks dominated the leaderboards, Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX: NEU) emerged as one of the worst-performing names, down 49.3%.

This downturn stood in sharp contrast to its remarkable performance in 2023, when the stock soared 214% following FDA approval of DAYBUE (trofinetide) – the first and only treatment for Rett syndrome in patients two years and older.

While the regulatory milestone propelled Neuren's success in 2023, the company struggled to maintain momentum in 2024, failing to meet earnings expectations and losing the tailwinds of its previous breakthrough.

Honourable mentions

• 24 June 2024: Eli Lilly reported the phase 3 clinical trial results for tirzepatide, which found that the drug reduced moderate-to-severe OSA severity by up to 62.8% (~30 fewer events per hour). ResMed finished the session 13.1% lower. 
• 5 January 2024: Eli Lilly announced a new website that will allow patients to get their weight loss drug prescriptions through a telehealth provider. This move will improve access to drugs like Zepbound. ResMed shares finished the session down 2.7%.
• 9 November 2023: The US FDA approved Zepbound for adults with obesity or who are overweight with at least one weight-related condition. ResMed shares finished the session down 3.7% and another 2.7% over the next two sessions.

Throughout their earnings calls, the company's management has consistently framed weight loss drugs not as a threat but as a complementary service. In the most recent Q1 2025 earnings call, CEO Michael Farrell said, "We conducted a real-world data analysis with 989,000 subjects. The data shows that patients prescribed both GLP-1 medication and CPAP therapy have a 10.8% higher likelihood of commencing positive airway pressure therapy."

Buying each and every one of those Resmed dips would have made 2024 a very, very profitable year.