Indicators of Weakening Metal Market Conditions
John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
At the end of May, the gap between current metal prices and the historical benchmark against which PortfolioDirect judges cyclical positioning (see chart) had widened. The flow of metal usage statistics (see livewire from 7 days ago (VIEW LINK) ) indicates a rising chance that usage growth in 2015 will be below average and possibly negative. The widening spreads between cash and forward prices during May (see chart) are consistent with weakening market conditions. The upward trend in the US dollar (see chart)also implies reduced scope for prices to rise unless they are simply adjusting to having previously overshot on the downside, as in the cases of iron ore and crude oil. Those other commodities on a more mature cyclical path appear unable, for the time being, to withstand the pressures.
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John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business strategist and investment market professional for over 30 years after starting his career as a Commonwealth Treasury economist in Canberra. Since being Australia's top-rated commodities analyst and chief economist at one of Australia' leading stockbroking firms, he has advised companies across the mining, consumer products, IT and biotech sectors on their equity market relations. He leads the firm's investment evaluation and security structuring activities on behalf of the Australian Small Scale Offerings Board (ASSOB), the world's first equity 'crowdfunding' investment platform. John Robertson discusses the interaction of mining and investment markets in his weekly 'From the Capital' column in Mining Journal.
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John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...
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No areas of expertise
John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...
Expertise
No areas of expertise
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