Is the Commonwealth Bank's share price surge the ultimate bubble signal?

Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The information provided should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It should not be assumed that any of the security transactions discussed here were, or will prove to be, profitable. Source: MCA, FactSet; as 14 January 2025. Data shown for a representative MCA Value Equity account vs. S&P/ASX 200 Index. *Expected next 12 Months (NTM) data is calculated using the weighted average of broker consensus forecasts of each portfolio holding – because of this, the returns quoted are estimated figures and are therefore not guaranteed and may differ materially from the figures mentioned. The figures may also be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. In respect of the broker consensus data the number of brokers included for each individual stock will vary depending on active coverage of that stock by a broker at any point in time. A median of brokers is typically utilised. All estimates avoid stale forecasts which are removed after a certain number of days. **Long-run P/E ratio of the Australian market Important information Any distribution of this material in Australia is by Martin Currie Australia (‘MCA’). Martin Currie Australia is a division of Franklin Templeton Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 849). Franklin Templeton Australia Limited is part of Franklin Resources, Inc., and holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL No. 240827) issued pursuant to the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is issued for information purposes only and does not constitute investment or financial product advice. It expresses no views as to the suitability of the services or other matters described in this document as to the individual circumstances, objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. You should assess whether the information is appropriate for you and consider obtaining independent taxation, legal, financial or other professional advice before making an investment decision. Neither MCA, Franklin Templeton Australia, nor any other company within the Franklin Templeton group guarantees the performance of any Fund, nor do they provide any guarantee in respect of the repayment of your capital. The document does not form the basis of, nor should it be relied upon in connection with, any subsequent contract or agreement. It does not constitute, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or otherwise acquire shares in any of the products mentioned. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The distribution of specific products is restricted in certain jurisdictions, investors should be aware of these restrictions before requesting further specific information. The views expressed are opinions of the portfolio managers as of the date of this document and are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, research, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Some of the information provided in this document has been compiled using data from a representative account. This account has been chosen on the basis it is an existing account managed by MCA, within the strategy referred to in this document. Representative accounts for each strategy have been chosen on the basis that they are the longest running account for the strategy. This data has been provided as an illustration only, the figures should not be relied upon as an indication of future performance. The data provided for this account may be different to other accounts following the same strategy. The information should not be considered as comprehensive and additional information and disclosure should be sought. The information provided should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular strategy / fund / security. It should not be assumed that any of the securities discussed here were or will prove to be profitable. It is not known whether the stocks mentioned will feature in any future portfolios managed by MCA. Any stock examples will represent a small part of a portfolio and are used purely to demonstrate our investment style. Risk warnings - Investors should also be aware of the following risk factors which may be applicable to the strategy shown in this document. • Investing in foreign markets introduces a risk where adverse movements in currency exchange rates could result in a decrease in the value of your investment. • This strategy may hold a limited number of investments. If one of these investments falls in value this can have a greater impact on the strategy’s value than if it held a larger number of investments. • Smaller companies may be riskier, and their shares may be less liquid than larger companies, meaning that their share price may be more volatile. • The strategy may invest in derivatives (index futures) to obtain, increase or reduce exposure to underlying assets. The use of derivatives may restrict potential gains and may result in greater fluctuations of returns for the portfolio. Certain types of derivatives may become difficult to purchase or sell in such market conditions. Franklin Templeton Australia Limited as Responsible Entity has appointed Martin Currie Australia as the fund manager for the Martin Currie Select Opportunities Fund (ARSN 122 100 207. Please read the relevant Product Disclosure Statements (PDSs) and any associated reference documents before making an investment decision. In accordance with the Design and Distribution Obligations and Product Interventions Powers requirements we maintain Target Market Determinations (TMD) for each of our Funds. All documents can be found via www.franklintempleton.com.au or by calling 1800 673 776. © Copyright Franklin Templeton Australia Limited. You may only reproduce, circulate and use this document (or any part of it) with the consent of Franklin Templeton Australia Limited.