June 2023 Podcasts: Dedollarisation, Wagner, NVIDIA and what is the RBA doing?

Grant Williams: The Big Macro Divides & Dedollarisation

Grant Williams is a titan of the financial podcasting world, interviewing the biggest names in the industry and examining the core macro arguments dominating discussions.

We took the opportunity to quiz Grant and see where he sits on some of the biggest macro themes.

Agenda:

• Is there a recession or soft landing coming?
• Bonds say recession by the 4th quarter, equities say earnings growth will be back to 10% by Q4. Can both be right?
• If recession, can inflation stay high or will it at least disappear in the short term?
• Is inflation going to be structurally higher?
• If inflation is higher, will commodities save you from that inflation, or will the normalisation of the China housing market offset any gains?
• Can the world move fast enough to green energy, or is there an underinvestment in oil/gas/coal that will lead to price spikes?
• Can an artificial investing boom be large enough to lift the market?
• What is a reasonable valuation for stock markets at the moment? At what valuation level would Grant start investing?
• Is the China/US relationship broken for the foreseeable future?
• Therefore, is dedollarisation possible?

Watch the episode here.

RBA To Government: I'm Going To Crash This Thing!

We have seen a raft of comments and discussions from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The message has been disjointed. What has come through, whether he realises it or not, is the fundamental disconnect between government policy and central bank policy. On one hand, Australia is being flooded with record levels of new immigrants, putting upward pressure on rents and services. Supply in that area is not elastic. New houses and infrastructure take years to build.

If we are relying on rising interest rates to crush demand so that “we need more people to live in each dwelling”, then we need a recession.

In this investment podcast, Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, Chief Economist, Leith van Onselen and Senior Financial Adviser, Samuel Kerr dive into the matter at hand.

Watch the episode here.

Has The RBA Gone Too Far?

Over the last few months we have been talking about how the soft data (i.e. surveys and forward looking) has been looking recessionary but the hard data has been surprisingly firm.

That has started to change: we are starting to see sweeping signs of a slowdown in the hard data.

In this podcast, Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, and Chief Operating Officer Shelley George, delve into the most recent data and pose the question of whether the Reserve Bank of Australia has gone too far…

Agenda:

RBA Argument

• Inflation
• Wages
• Productivity
• Profits

Leading Indicators

• LEI
• Jobs
• Retail Sales
• Earnings

Watch the episode here.

War And Wealth: Investing Post Wagner’s Russian Coup

Extraordinary scenes in Russia this week as a coup put a significant dent into Putin’s aura of political invincibility. We examine the aftershocks for their effect on macroeconomics, political stability and investments.

In particular, we look at the investment landscape for defense contractors, which ones benefit, which ones are less well positioned and where defense budgets are being spent in the aftermath of the Ukraine war.

In this podcast, Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Chief Operating Officer Shelley George, delve into the investment implications of the ever-evolving face of modern warfare.

Agenda:

• Ethical considerations
• Quick background
• Geopolitical implications
• Macroeconomic implications
• Investment implications: macroeconomics
• Military changes from Ukraine war
• Investment landscape/defense contractors
• Investment implications: stock selection

Watch the episode here.

Are NVIDIA And AI Stocks In A Boom Or A Bubble?

NVIDIA hit a market capitalisation of USD1 trillion this week after a stunning set of earnings upgrades.

Data centre revenue, which is the largest part of NVidia’s revenues, is expected to double over the next 90 days.

But revenues have been volatile. For example, NVIDIA’s gaming revenues halved last year, probably due to Etherium (a crypto-currency) moving to proof of stake.

On one hand, NVIDIA is not cheap relative to the market, trading on 45 times next year’s earnings. On the other hand, if it can double revenues over the next 90 days, then it might be looking a lot cheaper a lot sooner.

In this investment podcast, Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr looked at the question of whether NVIDIA and AI stocks are in a boom or a bubble.

Watch the episode here.