TOL - 3rd Jul, 2024
Macquarie: Why weak momentum stocks on the ASX are set for a rebound
Macquarie says its time to give stocks with low momentum and high risk a second chance.
Macquarie says the end of the financial year presents an opportunity to buy stocks with weak momentum and get out of stocks with poor earnings growth.
In his strategy 'Trading the Financial Year-End", Macquarie's Head of Global Quantitative Research John Conomos, outlines a two-step strategy that seeks to benefit from predictable seasonal effects around year-end.
June tends to see stocks with low momentum and high risk underperform as investors seek to minimalise capital gains tax liabilities, according to Conomos, while stocks with good momentum and low volatility tend to outperform as they may be kept for year-end window dressing.
Shifting to July, these trends have the tendency to reverse as "investors adopt a longer-term perspective and become more risk-tolerant."
Weak Momentum Picks
Bluescope Steel (ASX: BSL) is highlighted as the only ASX 50 stock that has an OUTPERFORM rating but fell at least 5% in FY24. The stock is currently down 3.3% in the last twelve months as volatile economic conditions have led to weaker steel prices. "We still expect earnings recovery from this juncture - recovering steel prices (and spreads) should support this," Macquarie analysts said in a note dated 15 April.
From the Mid Cap 50, Worley (ASX: WOR) is an OUTPERFORM-rated stock that fell 6.8% in the past twelve months, with above-average volatility. The company has faced a number of setbacks including challenged project economics (e.g. hydrogen), upcoming UK and US elections creating uncertainty around future government funding and a flat backlog over the two months to 31 February 2024.
A few volatile ASX 100-200 that fell in FY24 and are currently rated OUTPERFORM include Sims (ASX: SGM), Credit Corp (ASX: CCP) and Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR).
Masked decliners
The report coined the term "masked decliners" for stocks that outperformed in FY24 but the gains were driven solely by price-to-earnings expansion. In other words, the price went up but earnings (or earnings expectations) did not.
This group includes:
"In relative terms, Banks are the second most expensive sector (after Tech) with PE 2.6 standard deviations above average," the report said.
Hidden growth
This refers to a handful of stocks where underperformance has masked an improvement in FY25 earnings expectations. The ASX 100 stocks rated OUTPERFORM for this criteria include:
In terms of small caps, the OUTPERFORM-rated hidden growth stocks include:
- Coronado Global Resources (ASX: CRN)
- IPH (ASX: IPH)
- De Grey Mining (ASX: DEG)
- Auckland International Airport (ASX: AIA)
New Zealand exposure, H2 skew
"Companies with high NZ exposure have had a high number of negative earnings announcements since the start of May," the report said.
"Downgrades highlight the cost-of-living pressures as a cause of weaker consumer sentiment and spending. A weakening jobs market and concerns about house price have also weighed on the consumer."
The stocks with 60-100% of revenue exposure to New Zealand include:
- Spark New Zealand (ASX: SPK)
- Chorus (ASX: CNU)
- Auckland International Airport
- Fletcher Building (ASX: FBU)
A few stocks with moderate NZ revenue exposure that could potentially be negative impacted included Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN) (36% of revenue from NZ), oOh Media (ASX: OML) (12.9%) and ARB Corp (ASX: ARB) (10%). Macquarie is also fairly concerned about companies with a high second-half earnings skew, accompanied by consensus earnings downgrades. The top suspects were:
- Downer (ASX: DOW)
- Sonic Healthcare (ASX: SHL)
- Reliance Worldwide (ASX: RWC)
- Ramsay Healthcare (ASX: RHC)
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Kerry is a content strategist at Market Index. He writes the Morning and Evening Wraps. He is an avid swing trader, drawn to technical set ups and breakouts.
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Kerry is a content strategist at Market Index. He writes the Morning and Evening Wraps. He is an avid swing trader, drawn to technical set ups and breakouts.
Expertise
Kerry is a content strategist at Market Index. He writes the Morning and Evening Wraps. He is an avid swing trader, drawn to technical set ups and breakouts.
Expertise
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