Media worth consuming – September 2024

Interesting and under the radar media on finance, economics, politics and society
Jonathan Rochford

Narrow Road Capital

Top Five Articles

It’s no surprise that Singapore, Switzerland and Ireland have very high levels of GDP per capita, as they also have the highest levels of economic freedom.

The Australian government has consistently shut down discussions of an East coast gas reservation policy, despite the West coast reservation policy being highly effective.

A Chinese economist hasn’t been seen since April after he criticised President Xi and his country’s economy.

A short selling firm created a tongue in cheek disclosure after another short seller was charged with fraud.

After patrons saw “pandas” acting strangely, a Chinese Zoo admitted they are painted dogs.

Finance

Ned Davis Research believes US stocks are overpriced on any variation of the P/E ratio, but the counter arguments suggest that CAPE is a poor valuation metric. The chocolate held in warehouses backing London’s futures market is old and low quality, prompting many to shift their trading to New York. The Maldives could become the first sovereign sukuk issuer to default, with its October interest payment looking doubtful. Banks that lost money on dumb loans to Archegos are now being investigated for colluding in their selldown of Archegos assets.

An American psychiatric hospital chain has been exposed for detaining patients unnecessarily and without consent, often until their insurance ran out. The US Government estimates that 10-40% of Covid program payments went to fraudsters. Tik Tok videos encouraged Americans to commit cheque fraud, with those who did now being pursued by banks for the ill-gotten proceeds. An American “musician” has been charged with defrauding streaming platforms of more than $10 million after he using AI to create songs and then had bots listen to those songs billions of times.

The SEC has fined the auditors of bankrupt crypto firm FTX a mere $1.95 million for negligence in their work. PWC China has been fined $62 million and banned from auditing for six months for failing to detect fraud at Evergrande. The story of a man who has made a career out of exposing frauds and earning whistleblower awards.

Politics & culture

California has introduced a law banning deepfake political content around elections, but some argue it also bans parody and satire. Hillary Clinton wants people engaging in disinformation to be jailed, which is ironic given her history of propagating it. Australia’s proposed misinformation legislation includes exemptions for government communications and journalists, a bizarre outcome given their promotion of misinformation on Covid and housing.

Brazil banned Twitter and is threatening to fine citizens $9,000 per day if they use the platform, but Twitter found a temporary workaround. The European bureaucrat who demanded that Twitter censor coverage of the American Presidential election announced his resignation on Twitter shortly thereafter.

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have almost no business experience, which is evident in their obviously flawed economic plans. Congress put the wrong date in a tax bill, allowing American companies to save hundreds of millions in taxes. Tim Walz has been caught exaggerating his academic progress, military service and his children’s achievements. Hunter Biden’s guilty plea to tax charges appears to be a bet that his father will pardon him.

After correctly fact checking Trump’s claim about migrants eating cats and dogs, debate moderators made three fact checking errors in favour of Kamala Harris. While Trump’s relationship with the intelligence community is strained, Obama’s treatment of them was far worse.

Harris and Walz detest free speech, believing it is a privilege to be bestowed by government rather than a First Amendment right. Kamala Harris claims she will “protect freedom” but her record of government service includes many instances of abusing basic freedoms. The top 1% of American taxpayers pay 46% of income tax collected, but Kamala Harris believes that should be higher. She is also proposing to increase “refundable tax credits”, which are more accurately described as “per child welfare”.

A New York State government employee has been charged with acting as an agent for China, allegedly receiving millions in return for promoting pro-China policies. The corruption allegations against the Mayor of New York might be standard fare for some politicians who expect to be treated like royalty. Russia has used oil sales to India to acquire goods it can’t buy directly due to sanctions. The US government has seized a $13 million plane used by Venezuela’s President over allegations of sanctions busting.

China covered up the sinking of its next generation nuclear submarine earlier this year. Kim Jong Un ordered the execution of more than 20 government officials after flooding caused mass destruction. Hamas’s tunnel network turned out to be more extensive and sophisticated than expected. It is bizarre that Australia backs Palestinian recognition at the UN but won’t do the same for Taiwan.

The Albanese government is on track to oversee net migration more than double that of any government in Australia’s last 40 years. Germany is imposing border checks due to concerns over terrorism and overburdened public services. California has scrapped legislation for reparations, as the cost would have overwhelmed the state budget. Why many American corporates have pulled back from social activism. In 1916, William Boetcker wrote the timeless list “The Ten Cannots” which offers valuable guidance on how a society should function.

Economics & work

Germany’s fiscal conservatism should pay-off in the long term when other countries are likely to be forced into austerity. The European Commission has rightly identified that Europe is falling further behind the US, but has wrongly prescribed more government intervention as the solution. China’s declining economic outlook is largely due to government interference. Foreign aid disincentivises poor countries from adopting necessary economic reforms.

Howard Mark’s latest memo is a treatise on embracing free markets and accepting economic realities. Australia’s rapidly growing government spending is a significant drag on productivity. Rent controls in the Netherlands have slashed the supply of new apartments and led to some tenants being evicted.

Miscellaneous

Scientists estimate that the world is colder than it has been for almost all of the last 485 million years, but warn that a rapid increase in the Earth’s temperature could cause calamity. Fourteen of the world’s largest banks have pledged to increase their support for nuclear power. The UK’s last coal fired power plant is due to close on September 30.

Baking soda was the hottest new supplement at the Olympics, but not the regular kitchen variety which can digestion issues. A minor league baseball catcher was let go after he told opposing players what pitches to expect in order to end his team’s season early. Baseball pitcher Rich Hill is the ultimate journeyman, having pitched for 13 teams over his 20 year career.

Only 43% of prams sold in South Korea are for babies, with the other 57% for pets. After serving four years in prison for fraud, the founder of the Fyre Festival is now selling tickets for Fyre Festival II. Creative New Yorkers have been earning thousands of dollars a month shifting bikes between rental stations.  

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This article has been prepared for educational purposes and is in no way meant to be a substitute for professional and tailored financial advice. It contains information derived and sourced from a broad list of third parties and has been prepared on the basis that this third party information is accurate. This article expresses the views of the author at a point in time, and such views may change in the future with no obligation on Narrow Road Capital or the author to publicly update these views. Narrow Road Capital advises on and invests in a wide range of securities, including securities linked to the performance of various companies and financial institutions.

Jonathan Rochford
Portfolio Manager
Narrow Road Capital

Narrow Road Capital is a credit manager with a track record of higher returns and lower fees on Australian credit investments. Clients include institutions, not for profits and family offices.

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