National income rebounds and companies keep hiring
Business turnover rebounded in Q3, while payroll jobs continue to trend higher.
Partial indicators suggest that Australia's national income rebounded in Q3, while companies kept hiring in October.
Business turnover points to a c1% rebound in nominal GDP in Q3 after a commodity price-led contraction in Q2.
In terms of consumer spending - which is a key focus of the RBA at present - a broad measure of retail trade turnover posted another 1% rise in Q3, as did hospitality, although recreation fell 2% after a 5% rise in Q2.
As for the labour market, tax office data show that the number of payroll jobs continues to trend higher as companies kept hiring last month even as job vacancies keep falling after last year reaching the highest share of the labour force since the 1970s.
Mindful that the number of payroll jobs does not have a tight relationship with the official survey estimate of employment, weekly payrolls continue to trend higher on CCI's seasonal adjustment of the numbers, picking up in October to date after a fairly flat September.
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Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy, contributing to the investment decisions of the firm. Kieran has long experience as a macroeconomist in both the private and public sectors. He has worked most recently as Chief Markets Economist for National Australia Bank and was previously Chief Economist, Australia and New Zealand, for Barclays Bank and ABN Amro Bank/RBS. Kieran also worked as Principal Adviser on the macroeconomy and budget policy in the Commonwealth Treasury and Director of Forecasting.
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Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy,...
Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy,...
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