The asset class that outperforms when the economy doesn't

Despite decade-high interest rates and inflation sticking around longer than we would have hoped, the global economy continues to prove its resilience - with the recessions many feared would spread across the globe luckily not coming to fruition. 

That said, growth still remains sluggish. The OECD estimates that global GDP growth will lift by 3.2% in 2025, while inflation is projected to remain at 3.4% in OECD countries. 

Australia's GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 - far lower than our long-term average of 3.37% from 1960 until 2023. 

So where can investors find reliable long-term growth when the economy just isn't growing as fast as we would have hoped? 

According to Magellan's head of investments and portfolio manager of infrastructure, Gerald Stack, the answer is essential services - namely, infrastructure assets. 

"Water, energy, transport - the demand for these services is very reliable over time," he explains. 

While these companies are clearly not "get rich quick" investments, they do boast sustainably growing demand, predictable earnings, and structural forces in their favour - meaning you can invest in these assets with a high degree of confidence that they can grow your wealth over the long term.  

"People complain about investment in the stock market being a casino. By and large, they're people who are trying to double their money in a hurry," Stack says. 

In this Views from the Top, Stack outlines the impact of real rates and oil prices on infrastructure returns, shares which types of companies the team typically gravitates to and those they avoid, and shares whether Aussie investors are likely to see continued M&A activity in the space over the coming through months. 

Plus, he also names two stocks that he believes can help investors "get rich slowly". 

Note: This interview was recorded on Wednesday 8 May 2024. 

Timecodes

• 0:00 - Intro 
• 0:35 - Who is Gerald Stack? 
• 1:12 - Gerald's outlook on infrastructure returns (long + short term) 
• 2:55 - The impact of oil prices on returns 
• 4:32 - Infrastructure: A small universe making a lot of money 
• 5:38 - The types of companies Magellan invests in (and what they avoid)
• 9:20 - The 2 risks investors should be aware of 
• 10:23 - Will M&A activity continue? 
• 12:45 - 2 stocks that can help investors "get rich slowly" 
• 16:27 - Gerald's view from the top

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