The Australian economy is in a "per capita" recession - but does it matter?

A slower-than-expected GDP print in Australia has caused economists to reprice their forecasts for the local economy. It's now generally accepted that Australia is either in a per capita recession - or at the very least - the start of a period of below-trend economic growth.

So does that matter for investors? Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO and chairman, certainly thinks so - he thinks the probability of a global recession is still at 65%!

Ahead of the next episode of Livewire's Signal or Noise on Tuesday, we thought we'd take a closer look at the key data points and market-moving quotes that have shaped markets over the last month with the help of our esteemed guests:
AMP deputy chief economist (and series regular) Diana Mousina, Fidelity International's Lukasz de Pourbaix, and UBS Asset Management's Tom Nash. 

Note: This Rapid Fire was taped on Wednesday 27 March 2024. The full Signal or Noise episode will be live on Tuesday 2 April 2024. 

Are the following signals or noise?

• Australian GDP grew just 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
  
• Consumer inflation expectations recently hit a two-year low, according to the ANZ’s weekly survey.
• The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate for the first time in 17 years - what does this mean. for Australian investors?
• The ASX 200’s volatility index is sitting at near-five-year lows and the CNN Fear and Greed Index has been screening “greedy” for four months.
• Finally, Jamie Dimon thinks that the chance of a US recession is 65% - twice the level at which the market is pricing it.