The battle among iron ore price forecasters has begun
John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
The battle among iron ore price forecasters has begun. Former BHP Billiton executive Alberto Calderon ($70/t), Westpac chief economist Bill Evans ($120+) and Joel Crane from Morgan Stanley ($85-95) all put their views on Tuesday. Bloomberg's median 2016 forecast was $103. Cost structures among the expanding market leaders justify a forecast of lower prices. On past occasions when prices have fallen, large numbers of Chinese iron ore miners incurring losses on their production took the brunt of the adjustment. Their exit from the market resulted in tightening market balances and restoration of higher prices. In the short term, the same effect could be repeated but permanent replacement of Chinese production with lower cost production elsewhere would also imply permanently lower prices. Prices above $100 will need continuing growth in demand combined with a commitment among the Chinese to stay the course.
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John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business strategist and investment market professional for over 30 years after starting his career as a Commonwealth Treasury economist in Canberra. Since being Australia's top-rated commodities analyst and chief economist at one of Australia' leading stockbroking firms, he has advised companies across the mining, consumer products, IT and biotech sectors on their equity market relations. He leads the firm's investment evaluation and security structuring activities on behalf of the Australian Small Scale Offerings Board (ASSOB), the world's first equity 'crowdfunding' investment platform. John Robertson discusses the interaction of mining and investment markets in his weekly 'From the Capital' column in Mining Journal.
John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...
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John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...
Expertise
No areas of expertise
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