UK Claimant count increases to 50.4K, US Federal Reserve holds steady at 5.50%

We look at five of the biggest developments across global markets for the week ending 21 June 2024
Hue Frame

Frame Funds Management

Let’s hop straight into five of the biggest developments this week.

1. Chinese Industrial Production misses expectations rising 5.6%

Industrial output and fixed asset investment missed expectations this week. Industrial output grew by 5.6% year-on-year, compared to the 6% increase expected, while fixed asset investment rose 4% compared to last May, just shy of the 4.2% forecast. This data confirms that the rebound in the Chinese economy continues to be mixed.

2. Reserve Bank of Australia leaves rates unchanged at 4.35%

The RBA kept interest rates on hold for a fifth consecutive meeting as thousands of households anxiously waited for a cut. They said it would keep the cash rate target on hold at 4.35 percent. The current rate, the highest since September 2011, has been unchanged since November 2023.

3. US retail sales rose 0.1% m/m

Retail sales increased at a slower-than-expected pace in May as high interest rates and inflation continued to weigh on consumers. Retail sales increased 0.1, less than the 0.3% economists had expected but higher than the 0.2% decline seen in April. This data release continues to confirm that the US consumer is slowing due to the effect of higher rates.

4. British CPI meets expectations at 2.0% y/y

UK CPI met expectations this week, as the annual reading hit 2.0%, which is back within its target range. Housing rose by 2.8% y/y. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 4.2% y/y. These are positive developments in the UK economy, however, they stated that they think the work is not done yet to contain inflation.

5. Swiss National Bank cut rates to 1.25%

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered the SNB policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%. The has been one of the first movers in cutting rates, and surprised markets this time around, as expectations were for a hold at 1.50%. They also stated that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market if it becomes disorderly.

As per usual, below shows the performance of a range of futures markets we track. Some of these are included within the universe of our multi-strategy hedge fund. 

*source finviz
*source finviz

This week saw the energy complex rebound after a few poor weeks. Crude, Gasoline and Heating oil all finished up over +2%. Cocoa saw the largest volatility, as weather reports out of Africa were more positive than expected. Wheat sold off -6.52% as crop yields in the US were better than expected in good growing conditions. Copper finally had a week of consolidation, after seeing a significant amount of profit taking over the last 6 weeks. Finally, precious metals received some money flow, as investors allocated into these markets as they anticipated further rate cuts and looked to invest into these markets to hedge possible rises in inflation.

Here is the week's heatmap for the largest companies in the ASX.

Another eventful week on the ASX as the banks continued to do the heavy lifting. BHP, RIO, and FMG all continued to decline, which kept the index flat for the week. Tech had a very solid week, dragged higher by the strong performance in the US. Energy saw mild rebounds, as crude prices rebounded. STO, ORG, and WDS were all up for the week.

The Guzman y Gomez listing this week saw a first day stag of approximately 35%. On its second day of trading, it finished down -3.33%. 

Please reach out if you’d like to find out more about how our quantitative approach captures the price action covered above, or if you would like to receive these updates directly to your inbox, please email admin@framefunds.com.au

........
This information is prepared by Frame Funds Management Pty Ltd (ACN 608 862 442) (Frame Funds, we or us) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 123 9068) of Primary Securities Limited (ACN 089 812 812 635) and is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of sections 761G and 761GA of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including legal, tax or investment advice) of any kind. These materials are not to be distributed to any person who does not qualify as a wholesale client and must not be copied, reproduced, published, disclosed or passed to any other person at any time without the prior written consent of Frame Funds. Primary Securities Ltd (ACN 089 812 635 635, AFSL 224 107) is the Trustee of, and issuer of units in, the Frame Futures Fund and the Frame Long Short Australian Equity Fund (Funds). In deciding whether to acquire, or to continue to hold, units in the Fund please read the current Information Memorandum available from Frame Funds. Past performance of the Funds is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment in the Funds may rise or fall. Returns are not guaranteed by any person. Total returns are calculated before tax and after ongoing management costs. In preparing this information, we have not considered your investment objectives, financial situation or personal circumstances and therefore the Funds may not be suitable for you. Neither Frame Funds, Primary Securities Ltd, nor any of their respective related parties, directors or employees, make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or reliability of the information contained in this publication or accept liability or responsibility for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, relating to, or arising from, the use or reliance on any part of this material. Any rates of return, forecasts or estimates contained in this publication are not guaranteed. The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.

5 stocks mentioned

Hue Frame
Founder
Frame Funds Management

Hue Frame is the founder of Frame Funds Management. Frame Funds is a quantitative funds management company, that manages assets for institutional and wholesale clients, and proprietary funds.

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.

Comments

Sign In or Join Free to comment