US Corporates Signal Rising Manufactured Exports

The 5% first half decline in the US dollar has helped improve the export outlook for US manufacturers (and the sales prospects for S&P 500 companies starting to report June quarter earnings this week). US corporate earnings stalled through 2015 as sales contracted and companies ran out of cost containment options. Export sales, which can enable companies to break from the confines of a slowly growing domestic economy, were damaged by the stronger U.S. dollar which also subtracted from the earnings of multinationals in the S&P 500 index. The monthly US Institute for Supply Management survey of manufacturing business conditions for June has confirmed a reversal in the trend of new export orders which the survey had shown contracting throughout 2015. The June survey result was the strongest since September 2014. The chart showing the ISM new export orders survey outcomes (in blue) and S&P 500 sales growth (in red) since 2000 suggests a positive effect on S&P 500 sales and earnings over the balance of 2016.