What's happened to the IPO market?

And what this means for private equity exits and returns in the future.
Ally Selby

Livewire Markets

IPOs were on a hiatus in 2023, as the world grappled with a new era of higher rates and higher inflation. Global listings fell 15% during the year, with a 30% decline in total deal value. These deals were valued at $120 billion, according to Dealogic. 

Similarly, IPOs on the ASX plummeted in 2023 - with only $1.1 billion in IPO capital raised across 45 listings. The five-year average is $5.4 billion across 120 listings annually.  

So why are we seeing a subdued IPO market? 

According to Neuberger Berman's Gabriel Ng, the slowdown has been driven by the uncertain geopolitical environment and a softer macro backdrop. 

"We do see a lot of public market volatility, and that has led to a lot of companies not choosing to go for an IPO just because they don't see the optimal pricing, or they do not expect the prices or the share price to be treated in the way that they would like, which is why it's been a rather subdued IPO market over the last 12 to 18 months," he says. 

In this episode of The Pitch, Ng shares why private companies don't necessarily need to go to public markets for capital any more, outlines how private market investors are exiting investments instead, and explains what this means for growth going forward. 

Breaking down private equity jargon

  • General partner (GP) = The manager of the private equity fund and its investments aka - the fund manager in the private equity world. These partners have unlimited liability.
  • Limited partner (LP) = These are the clients of the private equity world - the investors who contribute capital to a fund and pay management fees. They are "limited" in that they are protected from legal action against a fund/company and from losses beyond the capital they have invested in a fund.
  • Internal rate of return (IRR) = This is a guideline for private market investors to decide whether to proceed with an investment. A high IRR means the company will generate more net cash and will exceed the cost of capital by a greater amount. A lower IRR means that an investment is less likely to be profitable. This is the typical performance measurement used by private equity funds.
  • Co-investment = An investment by a third party or a different fund into a portfolio company of a private equity fund, usually made at the same time as the fund's initial investment into this company (and with the same terms).
  • Underwriting = Calculating and pricing the risk of an investment. This allows a private equity fund to justify the money being invested by predicting potential future gains - anchored by the period of the fund life (typically five to seven years, aka - when the fund would exit the investment).
  • IPO = initial public offering - aka, when a private company transitions to public ownership and first sells shares to the public.

Note: This episode was filmed on Thursday 9 May 2024. You can watch the video or read an edited transcript below.

Transcript 

Why are we seeing fewer IPOs today?

I would say it is driven by two things, a more uncertain geopolitical environment, as well as a softer macro backdrop. So we do see a lot of public market volatility, and that has led to a lot of companies not choosing to go for an IPO just because they don't see the optimal pricing, or they do not expect the prices or the share price to be treated in the way that they would like, which is why it's been a rather subdued IPO market over the last 12 to 18 months.

Do private companies need to go to public markets for capital anymore?

I would say that is one source of capital, but there remain other options for them to raise capital, and one of the areas that they could raise capital from is really from private investors or private equity investors. So I think that provides a good alternative to the public markets. And of course, if you're a listed company, there are all sorts of obligations, all sorts of scrutiny, and there's a share price that you probably have to watch and manage. 

You don't get all these pressures if you remain as a private enterprise, which is why when we looked at the trends, at least in the US market, we see an adverse relationship between privately held and publicly listed companies. We see the number of private companies gradually stepping up over time, and it's the opposite trend for publicly listed companies. That's a good dynamic because it creates a larger addressable market for private equity investors to be selective and to invest.

Given the IPO market has been quite quiet, how are private equity firms exiting investments?

Private equity GPs or private equity firms, tend to have a few tools at their disposal when they think about exits. So IPOs obviously would be one potential route, but they commonly use two other routes. The second would be a sale of the asset to another private equity sponsor, and that's particularly prevalent in the small mid-cap space. A lot of these small mid-cap GPs grow a company to a certain size and scale, and then they sell it on to some of the larger funds that have to deploy larger amounts of capital and have the capabilities to take this company to the next level of growth. So this it what we call the secondary buyout or sale to a financial sponsor, which is another common route of exit.

This third route of exit is really a strategic sale. So this is where a private equity GP grows the company, improves its operations and creates a strategic or scarcity value around the asset such that a multinational company or corporation would acquire the asset from them as a complement or an add-on to the existing business. We see that a lot, particularly in corporates acquiring assets to enter a new market, acquire capabilities or acquire a new product. So a sale to a corporate is one of the other common exit routes for private equity responses.

Given that some of these innovative companies no longer need to come to public markets for capital, are there more growth opportunities in private markets?

I would see it in a balanced fashion. On one hand, the public markets remain very deep and massive, so I think it still provides good opportunities for investors to get exposure to high-growth stocks. But at the same time, we see massive growth in the private markets as well, just by looking at the size of the private equity AUM and the universe of companies that they have invested in within the portfolios. 

Ultimately, as a private equity investor, you take on more risks, but the returns and the numbers speak for themselves - regardless of whether you're looking at a 5, 10, 15, or 20-year horizon, private markets have outperformed public markets. And this is really us making the case for private markets having a place in investor's portfolios.

Unique characteristics mean unique opportunity

At a time when investors are cautious about the return outlook for traditional public markets, private equity offers important long-term advantages, including strong historical returns and diversification benefits. Find out more.

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Ally Selby
Deputy Managing Editor
Livewire Markets

Ally Selby is the deputy managing editor at Livewire Markets, joining the team at the end of 2020. She loves all things investing, financial literacy and content creation, having previously worked for the likes of Financial Standard, Pedestrian...

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