Australia on track for a GDP-per-person recession as immigration remains the only thing in the way of a full-blown recession; Bloomberg reports that US and China are close to a trade deal to end tariffs; and 35 major retail chains have gone into bankruptcy in the US since 2016. Here’s what’s happening in markets.

What I’m reading

Australia faces a GDP-per-person recession

While the headline GDP numbers are expected to remain positive when GDP figures for Q4 are reported on Wednesday, on a per-capita basis, this could be the second quarter in a row of negative growth.

Read article

US-China trade deal could be close

Bloomberg reports that unnamed Chinese officials believe that an end may be in sight for the eight month-long trade war.

Read article

American retailers implode

35 major retailers have collapsed in the last three years in the YS, owing a minimum of $100m in liabilities each, with some owing up to $10B in liabilities.

Read article

Stocks to watch

• Metcash (MTS) released a strategy and trading update

Key market data

• ASX200: 6,192.70 (+0.38%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7100 (+0.25%)
• S&P 500: 2,803.69 (+0.69%)
• China A50: 12,879.60 (+2.91%)
• Australia 2-yr bond: 1.771 (+0.40%)
• Australia 10-yr bond: 2.197 (-0.05%)
• US 2-yr bond: 2.557 (+1.55%)
• US 10-yr bond: 2.759 (+1.55%)
• Gold (USD/oz): 1,294.45 (-0.37%)
• Copper (USD/lb): 2.926 (-0.24%)
• Brent Oil (USD/bbl): 65.07 (-1.45%)
• 62% Iron Ore (USD/t): 86.65 (+2.54%)

Upcoming releases and events

• The TD Securities Inflation Gauge (Feb), ANZ Job Advertisements (Feb), and Buildings Permits (Jan) are all released on this morning 
• AiG Performance of Services Index for February is released tomorrow at 8:30am AEST
• RBA rate decision tomorrow at 2:30pm AEST
• Australian GDP for Q4 is released on Wednesday at 11:30am AEST.

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