Why the commodities rally may not last much longer (and what it means for ASX materials stocks)

About a week ago, our brilliant managing editor Chris Conway wrote a piece discussing whether the end is nigh for the iron ore rally. The idea is simple - a slowdown in the Chinese economy without any extra stimulus may spell bad things for the price of Australia's most valuable export. 

A research note from mid-last week appeared to confirm this view. Citi noted that although steel output cuts have been smaller than expected, the rally won't likely last. The team has a year-end forecast of just US$90/tonne for the commodity.

“We think the recent strength is unlikely to be sustained as effective stimulus measures will be difficult to achieve and a supply side response is also not our base case," analysts wrote.

But one research house has gone even further. In a 78-page research note, the UBS global commodities team suggested that history will not repeat itself this time - and that the fundamentals for a sustained rally in iron ore, copper, and steel don't exist even if Chinese economic activity is finally starting to bottom out. And if they are right, that could pose big problems for the major materials names on the ASX. 

In this wire, I'll summarise the key insights from the report and share what it all means for shareholders of the Big Three and two other stalwarts.

The theory (and the mixed proof)

UBS notes there have been nine PMI lows since 2010, and that while commodities do experience a boost - it's rarely long-lived.

Here's what they found:

• In the six months following a bottoming out in PMIs, the Bloomberg Mining Index only delivered positive returns 5 out of the 9 times. 
• In the twelve months following a bottoming out, the Bloomberg Mining Index only delivered positive returns 3 out of 9 times.
• For the China PMI specifically, it bottomed three times during the commodity bear market between 2011 and 2015. Over that time, the miners still generated average negative returns of about 20% over the following 12 months.

The caveat to this research is that this is a global mining index, meaning the performance of the Australian miners is mixed in with its international peers. 

So, what about the ASX miners?

I'm glad you asked. Let's start with the biggest of them all.

Iron ore

UBS estimates that the iron ore market will end up returning to surplus as soon as the second half of this calendar year. With supplies rising, UBS has a price target of US$111/tonne for the end of 2023. 

Further to this, if its thesis plays out, that price could fall to US$76/tonne by 2025 (though it should be said that these forecasts rarely stick and do change significantly from time to time). 

Steel

"We expect EU prices to fall in June as restocking loses momentum and import pressure grows. US steel prices will likely continue to roll over as import orders are rising (a function of falling import prices) and service centre restocking is slowing," analysts wrote."

There is only one major ASX steel play, BlueScope Steel (ASX: BSL) that actually earns a BUY from the analysts. But you should know that the stock has also been identified as a "crowded long" (that is, the price may be higher for longer as lots of people are in the trade already). 

Copper

Finally, a brief word on copper given no Australian stocks are mentioned in their coverage of this particular commodity. Based on active ownership data, we observe global investors mostly have larger overweight positions in copper equities vs both the global materials sector and the broader equity index compared to pre-China reopening.

But unlike the outlooks for steel and iron ore, UBS is actually more cautious on the copper outlook near-term rather than long-term. And they are keen to point something else out too.

"This increases the risk of material price upside over the next 2-3 years (potentially creating a "lithium moment" for copper)."

You heard it here first, folks.