Why we are excited about the opportunities in Listed Real Assets
Infrastructure, REITs, and Utilities faced challenges during Covid-19, and in 2023 due to the market’s focus on rising interest rates, which overshadowed the long-standing pricing power of listed Real Assets. However, the tail end of 2024 has brought a shift.
The headwinds of recent years are now turning into tailwinds for the sector. Inflation pass-through mechanisms, which can take months to years to manifest, are now positively impacting rents, tolls, and utility bills. Additionally, the adverse effects of higher interest rates are reversing in many regions.
Resilience in volatile markets
During the sharp global equity market sell-offs in early August and early September, our Australia-focused Martin Currie Real Income Fund strategy (80% ASX-listed, 20% developed market offshore) and the Martin Currie Global Real Income Fund strategy (18% ASX-listed, 82% offshore) have demonstrated significant resilience performance since the June quarter end compared to more volatile broader equity market indices.
We believe this resilience can be attributed to a key feature of our investment process – a focus on investing in ‘essential building blocks of society’.
The resilience, albeit short-term so far, signals to us a return to rationality in the market’s view of listed Real Assets as a diversifying anchor. The Real Assets we target typically exhibit lower economic sensitivity. Our unique process seeks high-quality listed Real Assets with an essential-use nature, dominant assets with pricing power, and recurring cash flows that grow with inflation and urban population growth.
We are particularly looking for Real Assets operating in cities and regions experiencing strong demographic growth, avoiding areas or countries with declining populations and, thus, declining demand.
Long-Term Growth Drivers
In addition to the urban population growth thematic, which is applicable to all our holdings, we see the long-term returns of listed Real Assets also driven by key megatrends, including:
- Energy Generation and Transmission Demand: Driven by increasing electrification; and
- Exponential Data Storage and Network Needs: Super-charged by growing AI demand.
Key stocks we hold across both portfolios that are aligned with these trends include:
- Digital Realty (NASDAQ: DLR): A global leader in Data Centre ownership and operation, benefiting from the tailwinds of rising data usage, with high returns on incremental capital flowing into attractive dividends
- AGL Energy (ASX: AGL), Emera and TC Energy (Canada) and National Grid (UK): Leading utilities supporting electrification for the energy transition, and energy demand growth from data centre and AI demand
- APA Group (ASX: APA): Gas transmission and distribution business with energy transition and peaking fuel role, and a growing presence in contracted clean energy solution such as solar, wind and electricity transmission.
We also see significant potential in assets poised to benefit from inflation and population growth, such as toll road operator Transurban (ASX: TCL), rail freight operator Aurizon (ASX: AZJ), and retail landlord Scentre Group (ASX: SCG). New Zealand’s high-speed broadband provider Chorus (ASX: CNU) services New Zealand’s growing population and its regulated asset base and revenues also directly reference inflation. Recently, both strategies also initiated an investment in Auckland Airport (ASX: AIA), set to benefit from New Zealand population growth and the rise of the Asian middle class.
An enduring positive outlook
We remain very constructive on the outlook for the listed Real Asset sector. Despite recent strong returns, our portfolio holdings are still priced at an attractive discount to our fair value assessment.
With interest rates now becoming a tailwind, and positive earnings and dividend revisions flowing in, while broader equities face the opposite, the portfolio’s fundamentals continue to improve.
This, combined with the ongoing appeal of Listed Real Assets’ leverage to the megatrends, offers a powerful combination for an attractive yield, income growth and steady returns in an increasingly uncertain world.
Learn more about Martin Currie Australia and our listed Real Asset strategies below.
2 topics
8 stocks mentioned
2 funds mentioned