overconfidence

An investment’s average result ALWAYS exceeds – often greatly – its most likely result. I explain how and why, and what you can do about it.

The “transition to net zero” isn’t happening and “green energy” has long generated red ink. When will the herd finally acknowledge reality?

"Experts" are mostly overconfident, and overconfidence retards investment returns. Today's fervour portends losses and disillusion.

Aussie companies have a mixed record when venturing overseas. But in early 2016 Wesfarmers had a great history of building wealth for shareholders – an investment in...