Buy Hold Sell: With gold at $5,000, where are the best opportunities?

The recent surge in gold prices has been described by some as a once-in-40-year gift for investors.

It has been a perfect backdrop for the precious metal, driven by a weaker US dollar, escalating US-China trade tensions, and growing concerns about global economic stability.

Gold equities have also participated in the rally, although not quite to the same extent as the underlying commodity.

So, where to for gold from here and which companies are best placed to capitalise? To help answer those questions, Livewire’s James Marlay was joined by Ben Richards from Seneca Financial Solutions and Daniel Sullivan from Janus Henderson.​

Ben and Dan share their perspectives on the current gold market dynamics, where they are finding value amongst explorers, developers and producers, and – most importantly, which stocks they like. 

Please note this video was filmed on 9 April 2025.

Other ways to listen:

• Podbean
• Spotify

Edited transcript:

James Marlay: Hi there folks, and welcome to this special episode of Buy Hold Sell. Today we’re talking about the one asset that’s holding up — and heating up — in 2025: gold. To help unpack what’s happening in the gold cycle and where you could be making money, I’m joined by Dan Sullivan from Janus Henderson and Ben Richards from Seneca Gents. Thanks for coming in, gents.

Dan Sullivan: Thanks for having us.

Where to from here for gold?

James Marlay: It’s the one asset that’s defied gravity this year — gold. Ben, what’s your take on where it’s headed from here? Some say it’s a funding source, others reckon it’s heading to $5,000.

Ben Richards: Yeah, well, it’s pretty much already there in Aussie dollar terms, given how weak the Aussie dollar’s been. Gold’s really been the standout — it’s held up better than anything else and just keeps climbing. In this risk-off environment, it’s hard to see gold falling significantly. That said, if we get some unexpected positive news — maybe around tariffs or other global issues — we might see a shift back to risk assets, and gold could soften a bit. But the tailwinds are still strong: central bank buying, safe haven demand, and limited supply. We do think the big producers are getting a bit fully valued, though, so we’re focusing more on earlier-stage developers and explorers where there’s still plenty of upside.

James Marlay: Dan, you’ve seen a cycle or two in your time. What’s your take on what’s driving gold right now, and is it sustainable?

Dan Sullivan: Yeah, thanks James. Gold’s definitely playing its role as the safety asset, and it’s been steadily climbing for nearly two years now — I’d say it's up about 100% over that period. A lot of people were reluctant to engage early on, and even the equities lagged until about six months ago when they finally started catching up. It’s been a great differentiator in portfolios, but I do think we’re probably near the top for now. Gold’s done its job and outperformed so much that some investors might start rotating into assets that have been hit harder.

M&A activity in gold

James Marlay: The M&A cycle in gold seems to be heating up too. Are you expecting more deal activity?

Dan Sullivan: Absolutely. Gold’s got a deep field — we track about 50 or 60 names — and I wouldn’t be surprised if half of those end up merging or getting acquired. We’re seeing deals all the way up to the majors, and I don’t think that’s slowing down. A lot of smaller players are adding value fast by making new discoveries, and the big boys will be looking to snap them up and bolster their portfolios.

James Marlay: Any names you think are ripe for M&A?

Dan Sullivan: Yeah, there are a few. Greatland Gold (LSE: GGP) , for one — they’ve had a strong run after discovering a big deposit near Telfer and then acquiring the Telfer plant itself. They’ve probably doubled in the past six months. Another one is G Mining (TSE: GMIN) in South America — they’ve bought a project, are developing it, and have two more nearby to explore. That company’s also roughly doubled. These are the kinds of companies that create new value, and that’s where the real opportunity is in the gold space.

James Marlay: Ben, you’ve written a lot about M&A candidates, especially in small caps. How are you playing it right now?

Ben Richards: Yeah, I think M&A is set to keep rolling. The larger gold producers are sitting on a pile of cash, and acquiring assets is still the cheapest, quickest way to grow. I’ve been pretty vocal about names like De Grey (ASX: DEG), but one we’ve got high conviction on right now is Antipa Minerals (ASX: AZY). I’ll take the other side of Dan’s trade on Greatland Gold. Greatland's done well, especially with their acquisition of the Telfer mine and its 20-million-tonne-per-annum plant — it’s a monster, bigger than the Kalgoorlie Super Pit. But they still need to feed that plant, and Antipa, with its 2.3-million-ounce deposit, could be a perfect fit. At around a $200-300 million valuation, it’s pocket change for Greatland, especially as they prepare to list on the ASX in the next few months. It could be a near-term catalyst.

Dan Sullivan: Makes good sense, Ben. Busy broking day though — I’d better get back to the desk.

Where are you finding value?

James Marlay: Very good. Now, we’ve touched on producers, developers, and explorers — where along that chain are you finding the best value right now?

Ben Richards: We reckon producers are looking a bit stretched, especially the reliable names that always hit their numbers — like Capricorn (ASX: CMM), Genesis (ASX: GMD), even Emerald (ASX: EMR) over in Cambodia. They’ve earned a quality premium, but that’s mostly priced in. Given the M&A theme, we think developers are the next wave to benefit. There’s also some value in explorers — especially when you consider some are finding ounces at $10-15 per ounce, compared to the $150 or more you’d pay to buy a developed resource. Drilling companies like IMD (ASX: IMD) could also be big winners from all this activity.

James Marlay: Dan, same question to you — where do you see the best value?

Dan Sullivan: Fairly similar view. On the global side, Agnico’s (NYSE: AEM) been the standout — they’ve done everything right, earned their premium, and are now the largest gold producer in the Western world, while Barrick (NYSE: GOLD) has stumbled a bit. Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE: WPM) is another strong business, but trades at a high multiple. I think we’ll see some rotation out of these well-loved names into the next tier down — or even into other sectors entirely. As for developers, it’s one of the few industries where, with the least amount of capital, you can generate the most value. If you're successful, you can bring a property into production in two to four years and lock in an IRR of 50-100% with a two-year payback. Hard to beat that.

Top picks

James Marlay: Gold’s been the standout performer — pardon the pun — but what’s your top pick or biggest overweight position at the moment?

Dan Sullivan: Heading into the recent correction, we were holding more gold than ever — around 26%, which is high for us. Typically, we cap it at 20%, but gold outperformed and pushed us higher. As gold flirted with the $3,000 mark, we started trimming, taking profits on some positions that had doubled. Now we’re back down to around 20% and doing some selective trimming as opportunities arise elsewhere. I’m not bearish on gold, but as risk appetite returns to other assets, I think gold could pull back 10-15%.

James Marlay: So no high-conviction new buys, more of a funding source for now?

Dan Sullivan: Exactly. We’re mostly in a holding pattern — shepherding the portfolio. I like the names we own, like G Mining and Agnico. We did let go of Wheaton Precious Metals, but overall, I wouldn’t call gold cheap at the moment. Other sectors that have fallen harder are starting to look more attractive by comparison.

James Marlay: Ben, same question for you — what’s your top pick?

Ben Richards: Sure — one more for you: James Bay Minerals (ASX: JBY). It’s small, about a $50 million market cap, so put on your hard hats. They’ve acquired a gold resource in Nevada from a distressed private seller for cents on the dollar. Nevada ranks as the second-best mining jurisdiction globally — WA is fourth, for context — and we think JBY is flying under the radar. Aussie investors know WA gold, but Nevada’s heap leach potential and high-grade underground possibilities make this really interesting. For a $50 million valuation, there’s real upside potential here.

James Marlay: Well, there you have it — gold has been a shining light in the commodities complex. If you’re looking for ideas, you might need to broaden your search, dig into some smaller, unloved names, and keep an eye on that M&A pipeline. Hope you enjoyed this gold-focused episode of Buy Hold Sell. Don’t forget to check out our other episodes on bulk commodities and battery metals — all available now on our YouTube channel.