5 lithium price insights from Allkem’s first quarter results
Allkem (ASX: AKE) on Thursday became one of the first ASX-listed lithium majors to post its March quarter report, which provides critical insights into what it's really like out there.
#1 March quarter: Prices were intact
- Lithium carbonate: US$53,175 a tonne, up from US$53,013
- Spodumene: US$5,702 a tonne, up from US$5,284
Allkem said lithium carbonate prices were “slightly up from the December quarter” and in line with guidance. Spodumene was up 8% quarter-on-quarter and above its prior guidance.
#2 Margins: Another record quarter
- Olaroz (lithium carbonate) posted a record gross cash margin of 91% or US$47,814 a tonne, up from 90% in the previous quarter
- Mt Cattlin (spodumene) produced gross cash margins of 81%, up from 72% in the previous quarter
#3 Looking ahead: Prices set to ease
- According to management: “The weighted average price for third party sales of lithium carbonate products in Q4 FY23 is expected to be approximately US$42,000 a tonne.”
- “[Spodumene] pricing in the June quarter is expected to be approximately US$5,000 per dry metric tonne.”
Allkem management's view aligns with that outlined just last month by David Franklyn, who heads up the Argonaut Natural Resources Fund: “We expect further weakness in the spodumene price in the medium term, as it pulls back from extraordinarily high levels achieved in 2022,” Franklyn said.
#4 Withholding sales
- Deferral of volumes allocated to its Naraha hydroxide facility
- Significantly higher than expected production from Olaroz Stage 1
- A decision to withhold spot sales into the Chinese market.
The company has decided to hold off on some sales while waiting for higher prices. But at the same time, Chinese lithium prices are showing no signs of stabilising. As of Monday, 17 April, prices fell to 187,000 yuan a tonne, down 70% from November 2022 highs. Prices have been falling for 55 consecutive days.
#5 Lithium market commentary
“During the quarter, demand continued to grow steadily in volume, albeit at a lower rate than expected and slower than what many had become accustomed to over the last few quarters.”
This article was originally published for Market Index.
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