ASX 200 flat as markets brace for massive data and rates calendar, base metals, lithium and uranium rally

Today in Review

Markets

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 5.5 points higher at 7,675.8, 0.44% from its session low and just 0.05% from its high – a welcome close near the high of the session. The market breadth in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) matched the narrowness of the overall advance, however, with 139 stocks down versus 140 stocks up.

The best two sectors today were two of the worst from last week. The Financials (XFJ) recouped (0.56%) of last week's 3.2% decline. Zip Co (ZIP) just keeps going from strength to strength, while the Big 4 banks each bounced back.

Also doing well today was the Resources (XJR) sector which eked out a 0.25% gain (versus last week's 2.9% drop). Punching well above the sector's paltry gain were a range of base metals stocks like South32 (S32) (+4.7%) (aluminium, nickel, copper, zinc-lead-silver), IGO (nickel), Alumina (AWC) (+2.9%) (aluminium), and Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+2.5%) (copper).

Hardly a resounding show of strength from the XJR, but with base metals prices on the rise, perhaps there's a tiny break in the clouds. See ChartWatch below for charts of Copper, Nickel and Tin.

ChartWatch

London Metals Exchange (LME) Copper, Nickel & Tin

Last week I alerted you (quite early mind you!) to a spike in the price of High Grade Copper on COMEX. With the rally continuing, and broadening to other base metals, it is an opportune time to look at some of the price action on the London Metals Exchange (LME).

Starting with copper, the short term uptrend is now well-established, and the long term trend has transitioned to neutral. The long term trend ribbon is converging towards an uptrend crossover and appears to be offering dynamic support.

The price action is back to higher peaks and higher troughs, and key historical supply points at 8530 and 8720 have been eclipsed. These areas now move to demand, with the zone between 9082 and 9121 the next crucial historical supply area.

This chart shows building excess demand, and only bearish price action near supply, or in the meantime a close below the short term uptrend ribbon, would kill the short term momentum.

Next is nickel. Nowhere nearly as promising as copper, but there's a decent short term uptrend developing. The dynamic resistance of the long term downtrend ribbon is the major issue here, and I cannot turn bullish on the prospects of nickel until this ribbon begins to offer dynamic support – not the clear resistance it has consistently offered during the bear market.

Finally, Tin. There's not a great deal of exposure you can achieve on the ASX to tin, but you might want to check out Metals X (ASX: MLX) and Venture Minerals (ASX: VMS) which both have been on a modest run lately.

I've included this chart because it's the next best after copper, and is demonstrating a solid short term uptrend and price action. Like copper, the long term trend ribbon appears transitioning from down to up, and is also offering dynamic support. 29450 is the next logical historical supply point-target.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Just a quick shout out on the XJO as we commence a massive risk week in terms of economic data and interest rate announcements (see Economy below).

Friday's late session rally was crucial in confirming historical support at 7585. As long as we continue to close above this point the short term uptrend is intact.

Whilst the short and long term trends remain up, I am growing concerned about the price action switching to lower peaks and lower troughs, and an increasing prevalence of supply-side candles.

I'd tip that in the short term we're neutral, and this week will go a long way to answering the million dollar question of where do we go next?

Economy

Today

• China "Data Dump"

  • Industrial Production +7.0% (+5.3% forecast vs +6.8% previous)

  • Retail Sales +5.5% (+5.6% forecast vs +7.4% previous)

  • Fixed Asset Investment +4.2% (+3.2% forecast vs +3.0% previous)

  • Unemployment rate 5.3% (+5.1% forecast vs +5.1% previous)

Later this week

Tuesday

• 10:50 JPN Bank of Japan Policy Rate decision (forecast no change at -0.10%)

• 14:30 AUS RBA Rate Statement (forecast no change at 4.35%)

• 15:30 AUS RBA Press conference

Wednesday

• CHN 12:15 1-year and 5-year loan prime rate announcement (forecast no change at 3.45% and 3.95% respectively)

Thursday

• 05:00 USA Federal Funds Rate decision, FOMC economic projections, FOMC Statement (forecast no change at 5.5%)

• 05:30 USA FOMC Press Conference

• 11:00 AUS Employment Change (+40.2k for 4.0% rate forecast vs +500 for +4.1% previous)

• 19:15-20:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing PMIs, France, Germany, Europe

Friday

• 00:45 USA Flash Manufacturing PMI (51.8 forecast vs 52.2 previous) & Flash Services PMI (52.0 forecast vs 52.3 previous)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks

Latest News

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ASX 200 stocks hitting fresh 52-week highs and lows – Week 12

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +8.6% Pacific Current Group (PAC) - Pacific Current Group Announces Strategic Initiative

• +6.7% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - Uranium bounce into second session, up another 2.6% on Friday, assisting ASX uranium sector

• +6.2% Bravura Solutions (BVS) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +5.8% Zip Co (ZIP) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +4.8% Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) - No news since 14 March , Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett and retained at overweight at Jarden

• +4.7% South32 (S32) - Australia Manganese Update, rising base metals prices, retained at outperform at Macquarie and price target increased to $3.90 from $3.40

• +3.8% Iluka Resources (ILU) - No news, possibly broader resources sector rally rubbing off

• +3.5% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +3.5% Life360 (360) - Becoming a substantial holder from Pinnacle Investment Management, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +3.4% IGO (IGO) - No news, lithium carbonate price up on GFEX helping several ASX lithium stocks higher

• +3.4% Deep Yellow (DYL) - Uranium bounce into second session, up another 2.6% on Friday, assisting ASX uranium sector

• +3.3% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Uranium bounce into second session, up another 2.6% on Friday, assisting ASX uranium sector

• +3.3% The A2 Milk Company (A2M) - No news, trying to bounce off long term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +3.2% Cettire (CTT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend

• +3.2% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, lithium carbonate price up on GFEX helping several ASX lithium stocks higher

• +3.2% Boss Energy (BOE) - Uranium bounce into second session, up another 2.6% on Friday, assisting ASX uranium sector

Trading lower

• -14.9% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - Coming back down to earth after surge post Thursday's Commonwealth Government supports Nolans with US$533m package

• -11.1% Core Lithium (CXO) - CXO doesn't need a reason to go down, not only is the fall consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, downgraded to underweight from neutral at Macquarie, price target cut to $0.15 from $0.20

• -8.7% Weebit Nano (WBT) - Weebit Nano Investor Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -7.7% Strike Energy (STX) - No news, pullback after last week's rally post Tuesday's Walyering Production Update

• -7.4% Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -7.3% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, pullback after last week's short covering rally

• -7.2% Talga Group (TLG) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -6.8% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend

• -6.7% OFX Group (OFX) - No news, pullback after last week's strong rally

• -6.4% Superloop (SLC) - Superloop directs Aussie Broadband to dispose of shares

• -6.1% 29METALS (29M) - No news, rising copper price, Macquarie increased price target to $0.45 from $0.29 (See Broker Notes)

• -5.5% Audinate Group (AD8) - No news 🤔

• -5.2% EML Payments (EML) - No news, pullback after last week's strong rally

• -4.8% Healius (HLS) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

Broker Notes

• 29METALS (29M) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.45 from $0.29

• Alpha HPA (A4N) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.68

• Aussie Broadband (ABB) retained neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.75 from $4.50

• Alligator Energy (AGE) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.10

• Argosy Minerals (AGY) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.16 from $0.11

• Aeris Resources (AIS) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.15 from $0.13

• Audio Pixels Holdings (AL1) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.46 from $0.56

• Aurelia Metals (AMI)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $0.15

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.23 from $0.22

• ANZ Group (ANZ) retained at hold at Citi; Price Target: $26.00

• Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.19

• Alumina (AWC) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.30 from $1.10

• Azure Minerals (AZS) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.85

• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $8.60

• Bellevue Gold (BGL) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.90

• BHP Group (BHP) downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $42.00 from $48.00

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.34

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.00

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.05

• Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.90

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.95

• Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.74

• Black Rock Mining (BKT) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.46

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $82.00

• Chalice Mining (CHN) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00

• Champion Iron (CIA) downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.50 from $9.20

• Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.35

• Capricorn Metals (CMM) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.80

• Carnaby Resources (CNB) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.10

• Centuria Capital Group (CNI) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.70

• Cooper Energy (COE) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.18

• Centuria Office REIT (COF) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30

• Comet Ridge (COI) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.26

• Conrad Asia Energy. (CRD) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85

• Coronado Global Resources (CRN) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.20

• Centaurus Metals (CTM) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.70

• Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.90

• Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $16.00

• Core Lithium (CXO) downgraded to underweight from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.15 from $0.20

• De Grey Mining (DEG) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.80

• Delta Lithium (DLI) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.75

• Dreadnought Resources (DRE) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.15

• Deterra Royalties (DRR) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.80

• Develop Global (DVP) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.10

• Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.00

• Dexus Industria REIT/Units (DXI) retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.80

• EML Payments (EML) retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.00

• Evolution Mining (EVN) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.80

• Fortescue (FMG) retained at underweight at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.00 from $18.50

• GDI Property Group (GDI) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.75

• Global Lithium Resources (GL1) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.66 from $0.70

• Galan Lithium (GLN) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.95

• Genesis Minerals (GMD) downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00

• Gold Road Resources (GOR) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.60

• Green Technology Metals (GT1) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.39

• Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.70

• Homeco Daily Needs REIT (HDN) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30

• Hartshead Resources (HHR) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.03

• HMC Capital (HMC) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.05

• Hub24 (HUB) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $44.00

• IGO (IGO)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.50

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.90 from $8.60

• Iluka Resources (ILU) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00 from $7.60

• Imdex (IMD) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.25

• Judo Capital Holdings (JDO) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.04

• Jupiter Mines (JMS) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.25

• Karoon Energy (KAR) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.55 from $2.65

• Lake Resources (LKE) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.12

• Lendlease Group (LLC) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.30

• Loyal Lithium (LLL) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.50

• Lotus Resources (LOT) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50

• Latin Resources (LRS) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.43

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.40

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.00 from $11.00

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.90

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00

• Mount Gibson Iron (MGX) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.55

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $75.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $77.00 from $75.00

• Macquarie Group (MQG) retained at hold at Citi; Price Target: $161.00

• National Australia Bank (NAB) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.75

• Newmont Corporation (NEM) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $68.00 from $67.00

• New Hope Corporation (NHC) retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.20

• Nickel Industries (NIC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.53

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.10

• Northern Star Resources (NST) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00 from $16.00

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.60

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.50

• Pentanet (5GG) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.16

• Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.36 from $0.40

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.55

  • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $4.14

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.40

• Patriot Battery Metals (PMT) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.10

• Perpetual (PPT) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $27.15 from $27.33

• Perenti (PRN) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70

• Perseus Mining (PRU) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.60

• Qantas Airways (QAN) retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $7.00

• Rio Tinto (RIO) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $125.00 from $120.00

• Ramelius Resources (RMS) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.60

• Regis Resources (RRL) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.50

• Resolute Mining (RSG) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.56

• Rex Minerals (RXM) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.26

• South32 (S32) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.90 from $3.40

• St Barbara (SBM) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.17

• Sandfire Resources (SFR) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.00 from $8.10

• Silver Lake Resources (SLR) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.10

• Santos (STO) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.05

• Strike Energy (STX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.32

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.30

• Sayona Mining (SYA) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.04

• Tabcorp Holdings (TAH)

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $0.95

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.05

• Talga Group (TLG) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.50

• True North Copper (TNC) retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.20 from $0.45

• Technology One (TNE) upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $18.50 from $17.25

• West African Resources (WAF) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.40

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) retained at hold at Citi; Price Target: $22.25

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.00

• Westgold Resources (WGX) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.90 from $2.50

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.00

Scans

This article first appeared on Market Index on Monday 18 March 2024.