ASX 200 to rise, US markets close at record highs, Warren Buffett discloses his latest purchase

S&P 500 Session Chart

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major stock indexes all close at new record highs after April CPI reading sparks relief
• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in April, less than expectations
• S&P 500 jumps 1% to post record close, ending the session above 5,300 for the first time
• European markets close higher on U.S. inflation data; Finnish oil refiner Neste's shares fall 14% following a profit warning
• Treasury yields drop after cool monthly consumer inflation data
• U.S. crude oil holds above $78 a barrel as stockpiles fall, IEA reduces 2024 oil demand growth forecast, further expanding the gap with OPEC regarding oil demand outlook
• Copper hits record high on data centre build-up, EVs but iron ore down on softer China demand, latest US tariff hikes
• Gold climbs as cooling U.S. inflation bolsters Fed rate cut optimism
• Bitcoin rises above $65,000 after CPI report shows inflation easing in April

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Palo Alto Networks will buy IBM’s QRadar cloud software assets
• Alphabet closes at all-time high as Google rebounds from disastrous start to AI race
• Buffett’s Berkshire reveals insurer Chubb (NYSE: CB) as confidential stock it’s been buying, Chubb shares rise 6% in US trading
• Cisco reports strong results even as revenue drops most in 15 years
• Tesla’s Chinese rival Nio launches a new brand and car that undercuts the Model Y by $4,000
• GameStop, AMC tumble as meme stock rally fizzles after just two days
• Dell surges 11% on optimism it has secured big AI server orders

CENTRAL BANKS

• BoJ's surprise reduction in bond buying earlier this week sparks rate hike bet speculation
• ECB's Villeroy says June rate cut very likely; ECB's Rehn notes inflation needs to come closer to 2% target
• Argentina central bank cuts interest rate to 40% as inflation slows

Author's Note: Following the US CPI print, most major research houses kept their existing interest rate calls. The consensus believes the first cut will come in September.

ECONOMY

• Hopes for US soft-landing on the line with US inflation data today the big focus
• Japan economy likely to have contracted in Q1, complicating BOJ efforts for policy normalisation
• European Commission sees Eurozone soft landing on track, inflation easing quicker but wider deficit
• Australia likely to return to budget deficit next year as government goes on spending spree

ASX TODAY

• As mentioned, Aristocrat Leisure (ASX: ALL), Incitec Pivot (ASX: IPL), and GrainCorp (ASX: GNC) are handing down earnings today. Last week, GrainCorp shares fell by more than 7% in two days after it issued an earnings downgrade for FY24, expecting underlying net profit after tax to come in between $60 million to $80 million.

• Citi's sell-side team has already made some moves, downgrading the price target of Xero (ASX: XRO) from $159 to $144.75 despite forecasting revenue growth of 21%.

• Finally, this survey from CommSec followers on X caught our eye. It's a small sample but it's interesting nonetheless.