Australian Vintage Group's chairman just bought $1.4 million in shares and calls it a 'screaming buy'

Wine merchant Australian Vintage Group (ASX: AVG) is a 'screaming buy' for small-cap investors as it travels a path to growing profits in 2026, according to its chairman and former Investec fund manager James Williamson. 

After a tough 12 months for the group punctuated by a failed merger with Accolade Wines, chief executive dismissal, capital raising, and boardroom spill, the stock fetched just 12.5c this week when Williamson's funds management business snapped up 10.9 million shares for $1.36 million.

On Wednesday, the group behind the behind the McGuigan Wines, Tempus Two and Nepenthe brands had a market cap of just $42.8 million based on its 13 cents share price. 

"So in fiscal 2025 we can be more or less free cashflow neutral normalised and in the following year [fiscal 2026], our target is to hit somewhere around $10 million free cashflow," Mr Williamson told Livewire. 

"And and our target after that [in fiscal 2027] is around $20 million in free cashflow."

Assuming the former fund manager's ambitious targets are met, the wine merchant trades on just four times next year's free cashflow target of $10 million and a scarily cheap 2x free cashflow targets of $20 million for the financial year ending 2027. 

Williamson, who worked as a stock picker at Allen Gray and the Investec Australian Equity Fund before taking charge of Australian Vintage, says the 2027 target is realistic as it's equal to a moderate return on capital employed of 8 per cent if achieved.  

Debt problems cloud picture

Other investors dumped the company over 2024 as it posted an operating cash loss of of $7.8 million for the six months to December 31, while net debt ballooned to $73 million, versus cash on hand of just $4.7 million as at December 31. 

However, Williamson claims the company can fix its debt problems as it slashes costs, lifts sales and grows gross profit margins via higher pricing. 

Net tangible assets (NTA) as at December 31 were equal to 58 cents per share to suggest the stock is undervalued assuming the company can manage its creaking balance sheet. 

Elsewhere, larger rival Treasury Wine Group (ASX: TWE) has struggled with similar headwinds around trends for consumers to drink less alcohol as rising living costs impact people's inclination to splurge on wine. 

Treasury Wine shares have gone nowhere for five years, as its own debt pile remains a concern and it looks to offload its Wolf Blass and Lindemans brands.