Buy Hold Sell: 3 ASX winners (and 2 losers) ahead of the RBA's next cut

With one rate cut already in the books and another expected from the RBA in May, the landscape for Australian equities is shifting fast. 

Markets are now pricing in as many as three additional cuts over the next year, raising a critical question for investors: which ASX stocks stand to benefit - and which could struggle - as interest rates continue to fall?

In this episode, Centennial Asset Management's Matthew Kidman hosts Matthew Haupt from Wilson Asset Management and Tim Johnston from Tyndall Asset Management - two investors with deep insights into how monetary policy moves ripple through the ASX.

They reveal which companies they believe are poised to outperform in a falling rate environment, which ones are worth avoiding, and how they’re positioning their portfolios for what could be a very different 12 months ahead.

Please note this episode was filmed on 23 April 2025.

Other ways to listen: 

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Edited transcript:

Matthew Kidman: Hello and welcome to Buy Hold Sell, brought to you by Livewire Markets. I'm Matthew Kidman. Well, we’re officially in a rate-cutting cycle—it can’t come soon enough for some—but it could provide a boost to certain stocks that thrive in a lower interest rate environment. To discuss who might benefit, I'm joined by Matt Haupt from Wilson Asset Management and Tim Johnston from Tyndall Asset Management. 

3 ASX Winners

#1. JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) 

Matthew Kidman: Matt, let’s start with you. Australia’s favourite retailer—JB Hi-Fi. Buy, hold, or sell?

Matt Haupt (HOLD): The valuation looks stretched—there's a lot of optimism priced in. I don’t see a lot of upside from here, but it’s still a high-quality business.

Matthew Kidman: Tim, JB Hi-Fi always seems expensive. Buy, hold, or sell?

Tim Johnston (HOLD): I’m with Matt—it’s a hold. Probably the best retailer in the country. They’ve successfully navigated multiple cycles and adapted their product mix well. I’d argue the current valuation is partly justified because many of their core products—iPhones, laptops—aren’t discretionary anymore. People rely on them. So, hold.

#2. Resmed Inc (ASX: RMD)

Matthew Kidman: Alright, let’s turn to global healthcare. Resmed—it’s had a bit of a ride: up, down, and up again. With rates trending lower, buy, hold, or sell?

Tim Johnston (BUY): ResMed is a buy. Not just because of falling rates, but because we think the market has mispriced the risks associated with GLP-1 drugs. Yes, these drugs are gaining traction, but dropout rates are high, and they’re not a long-term cure for conditions like obstructive sleep apnea. So at current levels, we see ResMed as undervalued.

Matthew Kidman: It’s been a strong growth story with a few bumps recently. Matt, your call—buy, hold, or sell?

Matt Haupt (HOLD): Heading into the quarterly results, we’re expecting slightly softer seasonal sales. So, I’d wait and see—hold for now.

#3. Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) 

Matthew Kidman: Now, I know you both like real estate. Scentre Group—buy, hold, or sell?

Matt Haupt (BUY): They’re probably the best operators in the REIT space. Highly disciplined, and there’s significant long-term potential to develop above their shopping centres. It’s a buy.

Matthew Kidman: Tim, are you with him on that?

Tim Johnston (BUY): Absolutely—a buy. Best-in-class manager. Lower interest rates will benefit them as they refinance their debt. Plus, they’re removing some expensive convertible debt, which is a big positive.

2 Losers ahead of the next RBA rate cut

Matthew Kidman: Alright, but not everything does well in a falling rate environment. What’s a name that could struggle if we see more cuts?

Tim Johnston: The obvious one for us is Computershare (ASX: CPU). They’re highly leveraged to rising interest rates because they earn margin income on client funds. As rates fall, that income deteriorates. So for us, it’s a sell.

Matthew Kidman: Matt, who’s not cheering for rate cuts?

Matt Haupt: Traditionally, banks don’t perform well in a falling rate environment. But I’d focus more on insurers—lower rates might only knock a couple of percent off earnings, but it's still meaningful. So for me, it’s the insurance sector that looks vulnerable.

Matthew Kidman: The whole insurance sector?

Matt Haupt: Yeah, that’s right.

Matthew Kidman: There you have it. With rates heading lower, it might be time to go shopping—but maybe not just in the stock market. Thanks for tuning in. If you enjoyed this episode, give us a thumbs up and don’t forget to subscribe to the Livewire YouTube channel.