Why volatility is just getting started

Markets are swinging wildly, and policy tweets aren’t helping. In this quarter’s podcast, Forager International Shares Fund Portfolio Manager, Harvey Migotti and I dive into the renewed tariff chaos sparked by Donald Trump’s latest announcements. We explore what it could mean for US exceptionalism, inflation expectations, and global investor sentiment.

From the bond market's sharp reaction, to the larger than expected tariffs and broader questions around corporate confidence and earnings revisions, Harvey and I dissect the key themes shaping portfolios right now.

“It’s going to be wild. The volatility hasn’t finished here - and we welcome volatile environments. My sleep doesn’t, but our returns do.”

0:00 – Intro and context for the recording date
Steve sets the scene by noting the extreme volatility in markets and the timing of the recording, just after a 12% Nasdaq rally on Thursday 10th April, Sydney time. They acknowledge the fast-moving environment and dive into what’s driving market sentiment.

1:58 – Trump’s tariffs, Heard Island penguins, and the shock to global markets
Harvey outlines the incoherent rollout of tariff policies, including the infamous “Liberation Day” and how they were calculated. They then discuss the serious implications for investor confidence, CEO decision-making, and inflation.

7:40 – The bond market’s role in policy reversals
Harvey explains why rising long-term bond yields spooked policymakers more than falling stock markets. The discussion highlights the US's need to refinance debt and concerns about a stronger USD hurting competitiveness.

14:35 – How Forager repositioned before the selloff
Steve and Harvey discuss portfolio shifts away from US exposure from the second half of 2024 into early 2025, driven by macro and valuation signals. They explain how this defensive positioning, cash build up, and selective stock-picking helped weather recent volatility.

17:55 – A microcap win: Nutex and the value of nimble investing
Steve and Harvey break down their high-conviction bet on US-based Nutex Health (Nasdaq:NUTX). From turnaround signs to site visits and Google reviews, they explain how this investment has already returned 5x - and why the upside may not be over.

Explore previous episodes here. We’d love your feedback. If you like what you’re hearing (and what we’re drinking), be sure to follow and subscribe – we’re doing this every quarter.