Copper, nickel, iron ore, uranium, coal, rare earths, gold, silver…Where are prices headed in 2025?

• High China port inventories and tighter margins at Chinese steel mills will likely lead to a subdued pricing environment.

• Citi did not provide a 2025-26 view in this particular research report but, in a recent report, it noted markets are balancing supply disruption risk in the Mideast and Russia-Ukraine, versus potential easing of these conflicts due to potential “dealmaking” by President-elect Trump from January.
• Citi also acknowledges “downside risks” from tariffs, plus Trump's pro-fossil fuel policies plus pressure on OPEC+ to unwind production cuts.

• Coking coal markets are likely to be mainly influenced by strong steel output in India, resulting in “an improvement” in metallurgical coal demand as the country increases its spending on infrastructure.
• Thermal coal markets are likely to be aided by seasonal winter restocking before normalising later in the year.

• Citi did not provide a 2025-26 view, but in a recent research report, it noted that it had turned “tactically neutral from neutral-bullish” on the uranium price over the next 12 months.
• On the impact of a Trump administration, Citi believes it will likely lead to “higher volatility” in uranium prices, as well as “increasing uncertainty” in global markets.
• Despite the last item, Citi still projects uranium demand in the US to increase by approximately 15 million pounds by 2035.

Citi’s 2025 and 2026 price target changes are summarised in the table above. We have calculated change compared to their previous target, as well as change from the current price of each commodity.

The broker’s price forecasts suggest the greatest 12-month upside for uranium and neodymium and praseodymium (“NdPr”), which is commonly used as a proxy for rare earths prices. The greatest downside is seen in alumina, iron ore, and Brent crude oil prices.

Base metals prices, namely aluminium, copper, and nickel, will likely experience a subdued 2025 before recovering as much as 10% in 2026. Coal prices are also likely to be subdued in 2025, as are precious metals prices.

Citi’s ASX commodities stocks price target & ratings tweaks

Citi’s commodity price target forecast updates have triggered several earnings and valuation updates across its ASX commodity stocks coverage. The most notable amendments are two ratings changes:

• Coal producer New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) moves to BUY from neutral. Citi notes the company will benefit from a weaker Australian dollar.
• Diversified minerals producer South32 (ASX: S32) moves to NEUTRAL from buy (price target unchanged at $3.90). Citi removed the 20% discounted cash flow premium it was applying to the stock.

There were several price target changes, all increases, summarised below in order of greatest increase:

For the record, other ASX commodity stocks in Citi's coverage that did not receive a rating or price target update include:

Citi's crude oil views from: "Oil Monitor: Crude and diesel prices gaining but rangebound, amid geopolitical push-pull between escalation ahead of potential talks", Citi Research, 20 November, 2024. Citi's uranium views from: "Multi-Asset: Commodity & Equity views: Power demand/Trump/Russia’s export ban – Positive for Key Nuclear and Uranium Trends", Citi Research, 19 November, 2024.

This article first appeared on Market Index on Thursday 12 December 2024.