Crypto’s place in Trump 2.0 era

The market for digital assets is shifting. Cryptocurrencies are now deeply intertwined with global economic trends. This isn’t just about price swings; it’s about regulation, liquidity, and institutional participation shaping the sector’s next phase.  

Crypto markets remain highly reactive to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. While Trump’s return has influenced sentiment, broader global forces, such as trade tensions, interest rate shifts, and economic uncertainty, also play a crucial role in shaping the sector. Despite ongoing volatility, the overall market trajectory remains positive, driven by stronger institutional adoption and increasing confidence. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation rose by 68% from early November, reaching a peak of US$3.73 trillion in December 2024. XRP was one of the standout performers, surging 577%.  

The Trump effect 

A key factor shaping the crypto market is the evolving stance of U.S. leadership on digital assets. President Donald Trump and his economic advisors have expressed pro-crypto views, with some holding substantial investments in the space. Since Trump’s election victory in November 2024, Bitcoin has surged from US$67,850 to a high of US$109,588 on January 20, 2025, marking a 61% gain. 

Several key events have acted as catalysts for market movements. On 21 November 2024, SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s resignation led to a 10% spike in Bitcoin’s price within 24 hours. The markets anticipating a shift towards a more crypto-friendly regulatory approach. On 5 December 2024, Bitcoin surpassed US$100,000 for the first time, reinforcing bullish sentiment. However, volatility returned on 3 February 2025. The announcement of new U.S. tariffs impacted risk-on assets, including Bitcoin. While this caused short-term fluctuations, overall market sentiment towards digital assets remained strong. Political backing lends credibility to digital assets. It also introduces risks tied to policy uncertainty. As regulatory discussions evolve, the long-term outlook for digital assets will depend on how government policies shape the space. 

Institutional adoption 

Leading global financial institutions have increasingly embraced Bitcoin. BlackRock launched the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in January 2024, amassing US$57.5 billion in assets, while Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reached US$21.76 billion by early 2025.  

Citigroup has invested US$150 million in Bitcoin ETFs, and Goldman Sachs continues to trade Bitcoin futures and invest in blockchain firms. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KB Financial Group leads in blockchain investments, further demonstrating the integration of digital assets into mainstream financial services.  

In Australia, AMP Limited invested A$27 million into Bitcoin futures. This marks one of the country’s first superannuation funds to gain exposure to digital assets. These moves underscore a broader shift, crypto is going mainstream. 

Market sentiment and investor behaviour  

Investor confidence remains cautious. This is reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, currently at 51 in the Neutral zone. This index measures sentiment through factors such as volatility, market momentum, social media activity, and Bitcoin dominance [1]. 

Since the U.S. presidential election, trading activity on BTC Markets has experienced substantial growth. The month of November 2024 saw a remarkable 200% increase in trading volume and a 147% rise in the number of trades. XRP has been the standout asset, with nearly A$2 billion traded since November 6, while Bitcoin and Ethereum also saw significant volumes. We also observed a 39% increase in average trade sizes compared to the same period last year. This indicates clients have committed significantly more AUD to their trading activity over the past 12 months.  

What’s next?   

The U.S. is solidifying its role in digital assets. Trump's recent announcement of a sovereign wealth fund builds on a crypto-focused executive order issued on 23 January 2025 [2]. The order tasks senior officials with evaluating a national digital asset reserve. This move highlights the government's growing stake in the sector, a long-term investment in digital finance.

As we move through 2025, one thing is clear. Crypto is no longer an outsider, it’s a core player. The forces shaping the market, policy shifts, institutional moves, and macroeconomic pressures will continue to evolve. Staying ahead means understanding these dynamics and seizing the opportunities as they emerge. 

Reference 

[1] (VIEW LINK)

[2] (VIEW LINK)