CSL, PME or REA: Which ASX stock will be the first to hit $500?

As investors, we’re irresistibly drawn to milestones, and the past year has provided a jackpot of them. The ASX stormed past 8,000, Bitcoin soared beyond US$100,000, NVIDIA hit a mind-boggling US$3 trillion valuation, and Elon Musk’s fortune eclipsed the GDP of New Zealand at US$400 billion.

Why do we love these milestones? Blame ‘round-number bias’ and the ‘salience effect’ - quirks of human psychology that make thresholds like a stock hitting $100 or an index crossing 10,000 feel larger than life and impossible to forget.

The fascination isn’t just with indices; individual stock prices are also breaking records. Costco recently cracked US$1,000, Netflix is hot on its heels, and Nvidia’s stock has soared so high over the years that it has split six times. Its unadjusted price would now top US$14,000!

Given the wild numbers we’re seeing globally, we thought: why not apply that thought experiment here? With local heavyweights like Macquarie, Pro Medicus, Cochlear, CSL, and REA Group all trading above $200, what’s stopping them (or another ASX company) from hitting $500 from their current price?

To answer this, we asked three fund managers to share their bold predictions, the growth catalysts required to get to $500, and the first stock they believe will hit that number.

#1. CSL (ASX: CSL)

Key milestones:

• 2007: CSL hit $100 before its 3-for-1 split.
• 2015: CSL hit $100 (again)
• 2018: Cracked $200.
• 2020: First surpassed $300.

Note: CSL would technically be above $500 were it not for its 3-for-1 split in 2007, however, this wire is examining companies based on their current share price.

Australia’s perennial healthcare darling, CSL, has endured a rough five years.

Remember 2020, when shareholders were bursting with excitement as it first cracked $300? Those were the glory days. Since then, the biotech giant has been stuck in a frustrating sideways trend, leaving investors wondering when the magic will return.

Despite this lacklustre performance, FNArena’s Rudi Filapek-Vandyck remains bullish, and you, our readers, have crowned CSL and its healthcare sibling, Pro Medicus (which we’ll discuss shortly), as the #1 and #2 growth stocks for 2025, respectively.

So, why the unwavering enthusiasm when the stock price seems to tell a different story? Filapek-Vandyck explains that much of CSL’s challenges stem from bad luck. The underperforming Vifor acquisition has been a drag, but other issues are outside management’s control.

“I am sure most of us can relate to such a period in our lives. Spoiler alert: it does not last,” he says.

Catalysts for $500 share price

Filapek-Vandyck says if the following unfolds in the CSL story, the company could finally snap out of its trading range:

1. Plasma collection growth: Sustained double-digit growth in plasma collection and margin improvement.
2. Improved key financial metrics: Further improvement in metrics following FY24’s positive step-up.
3. Immunoglobulin sales: Continued strong growth in CSL Behring’s flagship product line.

When will it reach $500?

Filapek-Vandyck expects CSL to trade above $400 in three years and says $500 in five years “is not out of the question.”

#2. Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG)

Key Milestones:

• 2007: MQG hit $100 (it was an intraday high).
• 2021: Cracked $200.

Macquarie is the powerhouse bank that keeps on giving. Since the COVID crash, Macquarie has been in beast mode, proving just how resilient and income-generating its business model can be.

Despite recent momentum, Marcus Today’s Henry Jennings is neutral on Macquarie Group (MQG). “It has missed expectations recently but has still risen - more on hope than anything,” Jennings says.

Catalysts for a $500 share price

Jennings says MQG could be due for a re-rating if it capitalise on the following factors:

1. M&A recovery: A recovery in deal activity, particularly in private equity and infrastructure.
2. Macquarie Asset Management execution: Continued growth in its asset management business, which currently manages $915 billion in assets.
3. Easing monetary policy: Lower global interest rates, expected with Fed cuts in 2025, which would improve capital markets activity.

When will it reach $500?

“It is hard to see $500 in the next five years given increased competition for assets,” Jennings says.

#3. Cochlear (ASX: COH)

Key milestones:

1. 2016: Cochlear hit $100.
2. 2019: Cracked $200.
3. 2024: Surpassed $300.

Flying under the radar, Cochlear is a true Australian success story. It quietly crossed the $300 share price last year, but Medallion Financial Group’s Michael Wayne remains cautious.

“EPS growth has been relatively stagnant, and profit margins have declined. We’ll need proof that the business is gaining traction in emerging markets while fending off challengers to its market share,” he says.

Catalysts for $500 share price

To get to $500, Wayne says Cochlear needs to execute the following successfully:

1. Capture emerging markets: Expansion into emerging markets to capture new revenue streams.
2. Control costs: Improved cost efficiencies to reverse declining margins.

#4. Pro Medicus (ASX: PME)

Key Milestones:

1. 2024: Topped $100, then $200.

A standout growth story, Pro Medicus (PME) has seen remarkable revenue and earnings growth, consistently improving its margins. Its EPS is projected to grow 34% in FY25 and 41% in FY26, according to Wayne.

“The business continues to perform very well. The balance sheet is in a strong position, margins are very high and the size of new contract wins continues to increase with a large part of the potential market still untapped,” he says.

Catalysts for $500 share price:

Wayne sees $500 as a realistic target for PME if the company can:

1. Secure more contracts: With the immense scale of U.S. healthcare spending, landing additional large contracts would significantly boost growth.
2. Deliver on key metrics: Successfully scaling revenues while improving margins will strengthen profitability.
3. Capture the imaging market: Tapping into the vast untapped potential of the global healthcare imaging sector presents a substantial growth opportunity.

But while attractive as PME is, Wayne believes there’s another strong contender in the race to $500.

#5. REA Group (ASX: REA)

Key Milestones:

• 2014: REA hit $100.
• 2024: Crossed $200.

Australians’ obsession with property makes REA Group a top pick for playing this enduring theme, says Filapek-Vandyck.

“Who is brave enough to predict this strong undercurrent will change in the years ahead?” he says.

Catalysts for $500 share price

Filapek-Vandyck believes REA has the potential to eventually reach $500, driven by key catalysts:

1. Sustained growth in Australia’s property market: A strong housing sector continues to underpin revenue growth, as well as margin and revenue expansion by charging more fees for listing properties for sale.
2. Expansion into international real estate markets: Entering new markets is essential for future growth, especially as REA and Domain already dominate the online listings market in Australia.

So, who will hit $500 first?

With the base case and level of conviction established for each company, here’s who the fund managers believe is most likely to reach the $500 milestone first:

- Filapek-Vandyck’s pick: Pro Medicus

Filapek-Vandyck is confident that all the companies mentioned could reach $500 within 4–7 years (share splits excluded). However, if forced to choose, he would bet on Pro Medicus due to its younger franchise, higher growth rate, and multiple avenues for expansion.

“We could see $500 in four years’ time, maybe.”

- Wayne’s contenders: CSL or Pro Medicus

Wayne highlights CSL and Pro Medicus as strong candidates, though determining which could nearly double its share price first is a tough call.

CSL: Its circa 20% EPS growth outlook supports the case for $500.

“Their flagship CSL Behring business rebounded well from pandemic troubles, due to strong growth in immunoglobulin sales.The Behring operations remain the main driver of group earnings, representing not only 70% of the FY24 operating result but also 90% of the expected increase over the coming five years,” he mentioned.

Pro Medicus: Its untapped potential in the healthcare imaging market makes it a formidable challenger to CSL.

- Jennings’ surprise bet: Block (ASX: SQ2)

Jennings throws a wildcard into the mix, betting on Block (formerly Square, owner of Afterpay).

Block’s appeal lies in its strong crypto exposure, sleek new POS machines, and seamless integration of its ecosystem (Square, Cash App, and Afterpay).

Meanwhile, the American consumer is warming up to BNPL, and Cash App has become one of the largest global debit card providers.

"US BNPL is gaining momentum and has the potential to double earnings; Cash App is now one of the biggest debit cards globally, and the addition of BNPL to the app and along with the marketing around it should pay off,” he says.

The verdict

While all three companies are solid picks with credible paths to $500, Filapek-Vandyck and Wayne lean toward Pro Medicus for its rapid growth and untapped potential over CSL. However, Jennings’ bet on Block highlights the disruptive power of fintech, making it a dark horse worth watching.

And now we turn to you: Which ASX stock do you think will hit $500 first?