Desknote: Veris Limited rebuild is gathering pace
Following recent management meetings, we think Veris could be a standout
microcap (VRS.ASX $0.075 Mkt Cap $30.4m). Looking forward, VRS
could be approaching
turnover toward $100m, and EBITDA of $10-15m, or 2-3x’s. They
are the largest
surveying company in Australia, and whilst not a "hot sector", we like the structural tailwind of both infrastructure,
resumption of residential/commercial construction and a focus on Defence
projects. They have the scale and presence to compete well for the larger
contracts. Following a significant restructuring, they are in a good position to
capitalise on this tailwind with lower debt and a structure
that sees margins improving across the business.
About Veris (VRS.ASX $VRS)
There are two divisions. 1. Veris Australia is a leading national surveying, digital and spatial and planning business. 2. Aqura Technologies is an industry leader in the provision of innovative technology solutions (think high end unified communications systems - as per the $1.9m Bunnings contract announced today).
Price History - 5 years tells the story of a restructure
Background – Painful – Lacked Execution - Back to their roots
- Veris was a roll-up of
several companies that encountered integration problems.
The new CEO Michael Shirley has been fixing the problems since late 2019.
- In a nutshell, managing a
largely East Coast rollup from an office in WA did not work.
It did not work geographically, and the roll-up execution did not
work as hoped. The main issue has been around the management of staff many of
whom work remotely in the field in challenging terrain with customers’
needs that are constantly changing. The delivery systems were poor and work was opened to being billed incorrectly (loss making). This issue has been
addressed with several management changes and some wholesale redundancies
of middle management and finance roles. The business in NSW slipped into
losses during this period but is now running back at breakeven following
the changes.
-
Elton
Consulting was a
profitable business acquired back in early 2018. Such was the breakdown in
the execution of the roll-up strategy, this business had to be sold in
late 2019 to shore up the balance sheet.
-
Instos
Lost – VRS
lost its institutional base, Perennial left back in June, and Paradice and
others in March/April.
- Michael Shirley has made a number of changes that have seen the business return to profitability despite the challenges of a Covid economy.
Looking Forward – there is plenty to start to like.
- An inflexion
point was the Q1 FY21
Update back in October – key highlights below – and
note this excludes uplift from any Jobkeeper payments. The backlog
of projects is $40m and the pipeline of tendered
projects over $80m.
Since that October update, they have secured $6.3m in announceable contracts
- Aqura Technologies - $2.0m contract to supply advanced LTE equipment for the Iron Bridge Magnetite Project, a joint venture between Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG) subsidiary FMG Magnetite Pty Ltd and Formosa Steel IB Pty Ltd
- Veris - $1.2m contract over 5 months with APA.ASX to provide surveying and associated services for the new Northern Goldfields Interconnect (NGI) pipeline in Western Australia.
- Veris - $1.2m Defence Sector contract across projects in Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia.
-
Aqura signed a
$1.9m contract with Bunnings (today) . The contract period will run 3 yrs
with a 2yr option.
The AGM commentary
was very positive and highlights the real potential of the scaled-down
business as infrastructure work starts to build in 2021. It is clear the
business is transitioning back to profitability. (table from AGM Presentation deck)
-
The
end markets the
group serves are approximately - mining 35%, property 35%, Defence 5% and
infrastructure 25%. All have potential tailwinds over
the near and medium term.
- At the AGM
the comment was made that revenue is annualising at around $100m with
margins currently at 10% with still an underperforming
operation in NSW. A key metric is the utilisation rate which is running at
around 65% with hopes to get to 75% for the 2022 year. Using their
targeted group margins of at least ~15%, which on the current order book
could see the company make at least $10m EBITDA this year rising to $15m
in 2022.
- The balance sheet
is in reasonable shape with around $5m of net debt which is being repaid
quickly (down from $18m).
- Back of the envelope, a EBITDA
multiple of 4x 2022’s earnings values the business at $60m versus
the current market cap of $30m. These sort of numbers are dependent on delivering on their order book and maintaining their margins. So, there is scope for shares to perform if management can deliver on these targets.
- The shutdown in Victoria has also had an impact on this year’s earnings is unlikely to be repeated in 2021.
- Alongside the Veris Australia business is a smaller technology business Aqura Technology. This business is profitable and growing with some recent contract wins and reasonable margins. Revenue is around $20m with margins currently around 5%.
In Summary
Following periods of underperformance, due to poor
execution, poor management or structural issues, companies rightly need to
prove themselves again. So the share price gains are often incremental as
management can show things are back on track. We see VRS as one of those
situations. We like that they are large, operate across many states, and have
the scale to compete and win the larger contracts (refer to recent contract wins - APA, Bunnings, Fortescue and Aust Gov/Defence). This scale relies on management systems to execute, particularly when you are in a contracting business (no good winning a contract only to lose money on it). And with better
financial management, the margins can continue to improve. With the balance sheet back in order, this also reduces an element of risk.
Not already a Livewire member?
Sign up today to get free access to investment ideas and strategies from Australia’s leading investors.
Author. Tom Schoenmaker
4 topics
1 stock mentioned