Earnings previews for BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Mineral Resources, and other ASX resources stocks

Earnings season is back for ASX mining companies. Investors will be inundated with a deluge of key financial data, operational updates, and the all-important future guidance.

This article will make the daunting task of interpreting the upcoming wall of information so much easier. We’ll go stock by stock, detailing what each does (for those new to investing in ASX mining stocks), noting the key reporting dates to mark on your calendar, plus we'll conduct a detailed preview of the critical financial data and operational pressure points market analysts will be homing in on.

Here’s the glossary of stocks we’ll cover, listed below in chronological order of their reporting date:

• South32 (S32) – 13-Feb
• BHP Group (BHP) – 18-Feb
• Deterra Royalties (DRR) – 18-Feb
• Mineral Resources (MIN) – 18-Feb
• Iluka Resources (ILU) – 19-Feb
• IGO (IGO) - 20-Feb
• Fortescue (FMG) – 20-Feb
• Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – 20-Feb
• Rio Tinto (RIO) – 20-Feb
• Sandfire Resources (SFR) – 20-Feb
• 29METALS (29M) – 26-Feb
• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) – TBA (likely 26-Feb based on 2024 release)
• Nickel Industries (NIC) – TBA (likely 27-Feb based on 2024 release)

Interested in earnings previews of the ASX’s biggest Energy stocks? Be sure to check out this massive ASX Energy Sector Earnings Preview featuring Woodside Energy (WDS), Santos (STO), and many more, when you’re done here!

South32 (ASX: S32)

Report/Reporting Date: H1 FY2025, Thursday 13 February

Company Description: South32 is a globally diversified mining and metals company operating in Australia, Southern Africa, and South America. The company produces a broad range of globally critical commodities including alumina, aluminum, bauxite, copper, manganese, nickel, silver, lead, and zinc. Key operations encompass the Worsley Alumina refinery in Australia, the Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia, and the Mozal Aluminium smelter in Mozambique.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus (see bottom of article for glossary):

• Total Revenue: US$3,948 million
• Underlying EBITDA: US$1,031 million
• NPAT: US$365 million
• EPS: US$0.08 (approx. A$0.127)
• DPS: US$0.033 (approx. A$0.0525) fully franked

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Australia manganese operational update / infrastructure build as per recovery plan
• Update on Taylor zinc-lead-silver project
• Update on share buyback and potential extension past current September expiry, or other capital management initiatives
• Dividend payout ratio (consensus currently 38% but company policy is >40%)

BHP Group (ASX: BHP)

Report/Reporting Date: H1 FY2025, Tuesday 18 February

Company Description: BHP is a major global mining conglomerate focussed on the exploration, development, and production of essential commodities, including iron ore, copper, nickel, uranium, and metallurgical coal. The company operates extensive mining assets across Australia, the Americas, and other regions, with significant operations in Western Australia, Queensland, Chile, and Canada. Notably, BHP is advancing the Jansen Potash Project in Saskatchewan, Canada, aiming to become a key supplier of potash to support sustainable agriculture.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: US$25,468 million
• Underlying EBITDA: US$12,376 million
• NPAT: US$5,020 million
• EPS: US$0.94 (approx. A$1.50)
• DPS: US$0.501 (approx. A$0.796) fully franked

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Rising cost pressures
• Update on Filo Corp acquisition
• Impact of October Olympic Dam copper shut down due to power outage / rectifications
• Update on Samarco costs

Deterra Royalties (ASX: DRR)

Report/Reporting Date: H1 FY2025, Tuesday 18 February

Company Description: Deterra Royalties is a royalty investment company focussed on the management and growth of a diversified portfolio of royalty assets across bulk commodities, base, and battery metals. Established as an independent entity in 2020, Deterra's cornerstone asset is a royalty over BHP's Mining Area C (MAC) in Western Australia's Pilbara region, one of the world's largest iron ore operations. The company's portfolio has expanded to include 28 royalties across 11 countries and six commodities, following the acquisition of Trident Royalties Plc in 2024. Deterra's business model focuses on high-margin, dividend-generating investments, with a disciplined approach to growth through the acquisition of royalties and providing financing to resource companies in exchange for royalty interests.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: $116 million
• Underlying EBITDA: $106 million
• NPAT: $70 million
• EPS: $0.14
• DPS: $0.089 fully franked

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Rising corporate costs
• Thacker Pass lithium project update particularly relating to upscaling
• Gearing, as growing perception among major brokers it is elevated in wake of Trident acquisition and could impact dividend payout

Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN)

Report/Reporting Date: H1 FY2025, Tuesday 18 February

Company Description: More commonly known as “MinRes”, it is a diversified resources company that operates extensively across Western Australia. MinRes is focussed on the mining of iron ore and lithium, as well as providing comprehensive mining services. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, CSI Mining Services, offers pit-to-port solutions, including mining, processing, transport, and logistics. The company is also involved in energy through natural gas exploration and production. MinRes is currently developing the Onslow Iron project in the Pilbara region, aiming to enhance its existing iron ore production capabilities.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: $2,015 million
• Underlying EBITDA: $212 million
• NPAT: -$279 million
• EPS: -$1.35
• DPS: No dividend is forecast

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Rising cost pressures
• Balance sheet pressure / debt levels (also considering next point)
• CAPEX guidance, many brokers are expecting this to be revised higher than present $1.74 billion consensus estimate
• Update on Onslow ramp up and haul road

Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU)

Report/Reporting Date: Full Year 2024, Wednesday 19 February

Company Description: Iluka Resources is a critical minerals company focussed on the exploration, development, mining, processing, and marketing of mineral sands. The company is the world's largest producer of zircon and a significant producer of high-grade titanium dioxide products, including rutile and synthetic rutile. Iluka's operations are primarily located in Australia, with key sites such as the Jacinth-Ambrosia mine in South Australia and the Cataby mine in Western Australia. The company is also developing a fully integrated rare earths refinery at Eneabba in Western Australia, aiming to become a globally significant producer of both light and heavy rare earths, essential for an electrified, lower-carbon economy.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: $1,134 million
• Underlying EBITDA: $484 million
• NPAT: $228 million
• EPS: $0.22
• DPS: $0.076 fully franked

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Update on Balranald commissioning (still on track for H2?)
• Weak price environment for minerals sands versus rising cost pressures
• Update on Rare Earth Refinery project including project economics

IGO (ASX: IGO)

Report/Reporting Date: H1 FY2025, Thursday 20 February

Company Description: IGO is a mining and exploration focussed on exploration, development, and production of minerals critical to clean energy, including nickel, copper, cobalt, and lithium. IGO's key operations include the Nova Operation, an underground mine in the Fraser Range producing nickel, copper, and cobalt concentrates; the Forrestania Operation, comprising the Flying Fox and Spotted Quoll underground mines; and a 25% interest in the Greenbushes Lithium Mine, one of the world's largest lithium producers. Additionally, IGO holds a 49% interest in the Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Refinery, enhancing its position in the battery materials supply chain.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: $266 million
• Underlying EBITDA: -$60 million
• NPAT: -$127 million
• EPS: -$0.16
• DPS: No dividend is forecast

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Most items already flagged, but potentially a material impairment at Kwinana Refinery and general asset update / performance

Fortescue (ASX: FMG)

Report/Reporting Date: H1 FY2025, Thursday 20 February

Company Description: Fortescue is focussed on iron ore production as well several development projects aimed at green energy initiatives. The company operates multiple mining hubs in the Pilbara region, including the Chichester and Solomon hubs, and has developed significant infrastructure such as a 260-kilometer private railway and the Herb Elliott Port in Port Hedland. In recent years, the company has expanded into green energy through its Fortescue Energy division, aiming to accelerate industrial decarbonisation by developing green hydrogen, ammonia, and renewable energy projects worldwide.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: US$7,595 million
• Underlying EBITDA: US$3,710 million
• NPAT: US$1,705 million
• EPS: US$0.60 (approx. A$0.954)
• DPS: US$0.34 (approx. A$0.54) fully franked

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Rising operational cost pressures in iron ore
• Red Hawk Mining acquisition update
• Rising CAPEX and working capital pressures in energy division

Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS)

Report/Reporting Date: H1 FY2025, Thursday 20 February

Company Description: Pilbara Minerals is a hard rock lithium producer via its 100% owned Pilgangoora Operation, located approximately 140 kms from Port Hedland in the Pilbara region. This operation is recognised as one of the world's largest independent hard-rock lithium mines, producing spodumene and tantalite concentrates. Pilbara Minerals has established strategic partnerships, including a joint venture with POSCO in South Korea, which manufactures battery-grade lithium hydroxide. The company is also expanding its global footprint with the acquisition of the Colina Project in Brazil.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: $431 million
• Underlying EBITDA: $68 million
• NPAT: -$17 million
• DPS: No dividend is forecast

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Most items have been well flagged, but the general focus will be on underlying profitability – so cost pressures versus the continued low price of spodumene

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO)

Report/Reporting Date: Full Year 2024, Thursday 20 February

Company Description: Rio Tinto Group is a leading global mining and metals company with dual headquarters in the UK and Australia. The company operates in 35 countries, producing essential materials such as iron ore, aluminum, copper, and critical minerals vital for the global energy transition. In Western Australia's Pilbara region, Rio Tinto manages an integrated network of over 17 iron ore mines and four independent port terminals. The company is also expanding into lithium production, highlighted by its recent $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, positioning Rio Tinto among the world's top lithium producers.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: US$53,116 million
• Underlying EBITDA: US$23,674 million
• NPAT: US$11,060 million
• EPS: US$3.21 (approx. A$5.10)
• DPS: US$2.07 (approx. A$3.30) fully franked

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Rising costs pressures
• Dividend payout ratio (for example, Morgan Stanley is expecting an “upside surprise” here of US$2.28 and a payout ratio of 60% (versus consensus 56.6%)
• Updates on key projects including Simandou iron ore, Oyu Tolgoi underground ramp up, and Pilbara Western Range
• Progress on bedding down Arcadium Lithium acquisition and broader energy transition minerals and strategic update

Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR)

Report/Reporting Date: H1 FY2025, Thursday 20 February

Company Description: Sandfire Resources has evolved into a significant global copper producer with operations spanning Australia, Botswana, Spain, and the United States. Its flagship asset, the DeGrussa Copper-Gold Mine in Western Australia, provided the foundation for its growth. In 2022, Sandfire expanded its international presence by acquiring the MATSA mining complex in Spain, which comprises three underground mines and a 4.7 million tonnes per annum processing facility. The company is also developing the Motheo Copper Mine in Botswana's Kalahari Copper Belt, aiming to enhance its copper production capabilities. Committed to sustainable mining practices, Sandfire focuses on supplying copper, a metal essential for global electrification and decarbonisation efforts.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: US$582 million
• Underlying EBITDA: US$257 million
• NPAT: US$51 million
• DPS: US$0.01 (approx. A$0.016) fully franked

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Most items have been well flagged, so general updates on Motheo operational performance, any FY25 guidance updates, provision of FY26 guidance

29Metals (ASX: 29M)

Report/Reporting Date: Full Year 2024, Wednesday 26 February

Company Description: 29Metals Limited is focused on copper and base metals, with headquarters in Melbourne. Established in 2021, the company operates two key assets: the Golden Grove mine in Western Australia, which produces copper, zinc, gold, and silver, and the Capricorn Copper mine in Queensland, an underground operation primarily producing copper and silver. 29Metals also holds the Redhill exploration project in Chile, targeting copper, gold, and silver deposits. The company is committed to operational excellence and sustainable mining practices, positioning itself as a key supplier of metals essential for the global energy transition.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: $547 million
• Underlying EBITDA: $26 million
• NPAT: -$113 million
• EPS: -$0.02
• DPS: No dividend is forecast

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Most items were flagged in January quarterly, but potentially reaffirmation of FY25 guidance, and more generally the market is focussed on the company’s ongoing liquidity challenges

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

Report/Reporting Date: H1 FY2025, TBA (was 26 February in 2024)

Company Description: Lynas Rare Earths is focussed on the extraction and processing of rare earth materials, essential for technologies like electronics, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. Headquartered in Perth, Lynas operates the Mt Weld mine in Western Australia, recognised as one of the world's premier rare earth deposits. The company processes these materials at its advanced materials plant in Malaysia and is expanding with a new processing facility in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia. Lynas is the only significant producer of separated rare earth materials outside China, offering customers a secure and traceable supply chain from mine to finished product.

Key Earnings Data Market Consensus:

• Total Revenue: $266 million
• Underlying EBITDA: $71 million
• NPAT: $39 million
• DPS: No dividend is forecast

Key Earnings Pressure Points:

• Update on Kalgoorlie mixed rare earth carbonate (“MREC”) impurity issues and timing of costs contribution to P&L
• Update on 10.5ktpa NdPr production run rate guidance for FY25

Nickel Industries (ASX: NIC)

This article first appeared on Market Index on Thursday 13 February 2025.