July 2023 podcast highlights: China property crash, abuses of power, and US Q2 earnings

Aussie Dollar: Where To Now?

It has been a volatile 6 months in macroeconomic outlooks.

A year ago, it looked as if Australia was lagging behind the US economically; a few months ago that narrative reversed. And then it's flip-flopped several more times.

In this podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn-Smith and Senior Financial Adviser, Samuel Kerr dive into this topic.

Agenda: Why the AUD is going to 40 cents

• Fed still hiking, RBA all but done
• China’s bust is structural
• End-of-cycle shock
• Next cycle: Australia poorly positioned

1. No AI
2. No reshoring
3. China’s commodity super-deflation, limited ESG commodity exposure
4. Another lost decade on poor policy making

Watch the episode here.

Prof. Steve Keen: Has Bank Lending Shuddered To A Halt? + CO2 Tracking

Steve Keen made a name for himself challenging conventional economic wisdom.

In particular, Steve has a focus on how money creation works in the real world, which is very different from how it works in conventional economic models.

For this reason, given the recent banking issues in the US and the dramatic slowdown in credit creation that we are seeing around the world, we thought we should check in to see what Steve is seeing.

Secondly, Steve is just about to release a new carbon report, and we wanted to dig into its finding and what the investment implications are.

In this podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Chief Operating Officer Shelley George and Professor Steve Keen did a deep dive into these topics.

Watch the episode here.

Michael West: On The Hunt For Abuse Of Power

The Australian investment landscape is dominated by oligopolies.

Many of these oligopolies are large donors to both sides of politics and seem to get an easy run when it comes to tax and regulation.

Michael West runs a website that focuses on independent journalism. Part of what he does is hold companies accountable over unpaid tax, poor corporate practices and government/regulatory concerns.

There is a good argument, that in Australia over the last 20 years, some of the best investments you could have made are in regulated companies and vested interests.

Socially and ethically, we are supporters of Michael’s work and supportive of change.

As an investor, you need to invest in what the world is, not what it should be. You need to be aware that much of the value in particular Australian stocks is tied to their closeness to regulators and political parties. If this changes, then the winners/losers in the stock market could change dramatically.

In this podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr and Michael West dive into this topic.

Watch the episode here.

Market Earnings At A Critical Point... Will Earnings Forecasts Hold Up?

Over the past few months, the market has had a bifurcated view.

Q2 earnings are expected to be bad, down almost 10%.

But, by Q4, analysts have almost 10% earnings growth factored in.

So, we are approaching a critical juncture. Q4 starts in a little over 2 months' time. If those forecasts are as optimistic as they seem, this reporting season should see some reasonably large downgrades.

In this podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr check in on the reporting season to see what is happening to earnings forecasts.

Watch the episode here.