Media Worth Consuming – April 2023

Interesting and under the radar media on finance, economics, politics and society
Jonathan Rochford

Narrow Road Capital

Top Six Articles

Over 75% of US banks do not use interest rate hedges, indicating that unrealised losses and precarious solvency could be widespread among smaller banks.

How the US government, Stanford University and Twitter worked together to censor information that was true but inconvenient to the “official” narrative on Covid.

There’s little evidence of excess profits but plenty of evidence of excess government and money printing.

Unlike dozens of celebrities who took millions to spruik cryptocurrencies, Taylor Swift did some basic due diligence and knocked back a $100 million offer.

A controversial study found that eating ice cream can lower the risk of diabetes, with the possible explanation being that ice cream isn’t so bad compared to the average American diet.

Finance

US unemployment remains at very low levels with job creation and pay increases still high. China’s CPI and PPI are both negative. American banks have tightened lending standards by the most in 20 years.

One group of short sellers is writing reports debunking the work of other short sellers. There’s a great deal of suspicion around the recent rally for Bitcoin and the growth of Tether. It’s relatively easy for a company to fake sales and substantially increase its accounting profitability. China is upending the global protocols for dealing with distressed debt, often angling for special treatment over other debtors.

Blackstone has raised $30 billion for a new real estate fund at the same time it is blocking withdrawals from its flagship real estate fund. Private equity firms are buying senior and subordinated debt in their own deals at significant discounts. What it takes to launch a hedge fund. The $787 million Fox News will pay Dominion Voting Systems is 15 times the valuation paid by a private equity firm in 2018. The CEO of a global furniture company told staff to “leave pity city” and focus on achieving results targets when asked about bonuses.

UK pension funds have a heavy weighting of bonds, with this having an impact on capital markets and fund returns. However, the UK Government is considering mandating that pension funds invest in British start-ups. Sweden’s largest pension fund has fired its CEO and suspended the head of equities after losing 2% of the portfolio on busted US banks. The Netherland’s highest court has ordered the Dutch government to pay holders of tier 2 debt in SNS Reaal €805 million in compensation for their notes being written down when the bank was nationalised in 2013.

Politics & culture

The Australian Government is going to trial against a whistleblower who gave evidence of war crimes to journalists. A Chinese court has handed down lengthy jail sentences to two human rights lawyers, who were allegedly tortured to sign confessions. A lengthy rundown of the allegations of the Biden family being enriched by China. Evidence has emerged that Ukraine is buying diesel from Russia with funds from foreign donors, with the CIA estimating that country’s President and senior officials have skimmed $400 million off the transactions. The man behind the recent US intelligence leaks had been leaking information online for 13 months.

Why are American, British and Australian centre-right parties embracing big government policies when they are proven to diminish prosperity? The US government would need to cut expenditure by 27% to balance its budget. The Californian government offered 0% interest loans to cover a 20% down payment and costs, with taxpayers getting a mere 20% share of gains in return for taking substantial risk and bearing heavy costs. Unsurprisingly, the program exhausted its annual allocation in 12 days. A Californian man was arrested 10 times in 31 days, with the alleged crimes including 6 stolen vehicles, drugs and fraud.

Two American media organisations that receive taxpayer funds have been widely mocked for withdrawing from Twitter after Twitter labelled them “government funded media”. Why are advertisers throwing millions of dollars at a transgender activist who mocks women? Four British high school students were suspended from school for causing minor damage to a copy of the Quran.

Economics & work

It’s nearly impossible to estimate the impact if the new Bank Of Japan Governor unwinds ultra-low interest rates and QE. An RBA Board member has admitted “with the benefit of hindsight... it looks like we did a terrible job.” Unlike governments that routinely waste taxpayer’s money, billionaires typically become rich by creating goods and services that help others. Norway’s wealth tax has resulted in dozens of the country’s highest taxpayers fleeing the country.

Rent controls reduce the supply of rental properties and ultimately increase rents, but governments around the world keep thinking they are exempt from the basic laws of economics. South African insurance companies are fighting fires and fixing potholes that inefficient and corrupt governments ignore. The Australian Productivity Commission’s 5 year blockbuster update on key areas for reform.

Miscellaneous

A referendum in Berlin seeking to mandate net zero emissions by 2030 failed after less than 19% of voters could be bothered to vote yes. Concentrated solar power is making a comeback, with its ability to store energy for up to 24 hours a key factor. Linear generators can efficiently create power from natural gas, biogas, hydrogen or ammonia.

Audience members were forcibly ejected from a London musical after singing along with the actors in the final song, despite being promised an opportunity to sing along. A Scottish marathon runner who finished third was disqualified after she travelled 5% of the race in a car. Dubai sold the licence plate “P7” for a world record $15 million at a charity auction. A long story about the man who beat roulette, perhaps just with his mind.

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This article has been prepared for educational purposes and is in no way meant to be a substitute for professional and tailored financial advice. It contains information derived and sourced from a broad list of third parties and has been prepared on the basis that this third party information is accurate. This article expresses the views of the author at a point in time, and such views may change in the future with no obligation on Narrow Road Capital or the author to publicly update these views. Narrow Road Capital advises on and invests in a wide range of securities, including securities linked to the performance of various companies and financial institutions.

Jonathan Rochford
Portfolio Manager
Narrow Road Capital

Narrow Road Capital is a credit manager with a track record of higher returns and lower fees on Australian credit investments. Clients include institutions, not for profits and family offices.

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