Media worth consuming – April 2024

Top Six Articles

The equity risk premium on the S&P 500 is close to zero, the lowest level in 20 years.

A small difference in GDP growth rates compounded over decades becomes a big difference in national prosperity or poverty.

Rand Paul alleges that fifteen US Government Agencies rejected a funding proposal for virus manipulation research from the infamous Wuhan lab.

Scottish police received 8,000 hate crime reports in the first week after anti-free speech legislation came into force.

A Brazilian woman was arrested for bringing a dead man into a bank to get him to sign for a loan.

Dozens of humorous interpretations of financial market terminology.

Finance

US services CPI is getting ugly, dampening hopes of Fed rate cuts this year. Australian CPI came in above expectations, raising the possibility that the next RBA move could be an increase. Jamie Dimon has JPMorgan preparing for interest rates ranging from 2-8%, with high government spending and inflation creating the risk that interest rates substantially increase.

The stock of China Tianrui Group Cement plunged 99% in 15 minutes before being halted, amid speculation of a margin call. A Chinese bank is leading the legal fight to liquidate the property developer Shimao. A Vietnamese property tycoon has been sentenced to death for a $12 billion fraud. Zimbabwe’s sixth currency has commenced trading, the previous five collapsed due to excessive money printing. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics has been exposed for providing “super users” with preferential information on key inflation data.

ARK’s funds under management have fallen 81% from their peak of $60 billion in 2021. After a decade of underperformance, risk parity is losing investors. Four reasons to prioritise investments in countries with lower debt to GDP ratios. Ed Thorp discovered the Black Scholes formula three years before the Nobel prizes winners but opted to profit from it rather than publish it.

The market for asset backed securities linked to esoteric assets such as art, internet addresses and gym royalties is booming. After the shotgun marriage of UBS and Credit Suisse, the Swiss government is proposing stricter capital requirements for its largest banks. Brookfield and Simon Property Group are set to buy an American fashion chain out of bankruptcy in an effort to keep their malls tenanted. Seth Klarman’s 20 lessons from the Financial Crisis.

Politics & culture

Democrats are trouncing Republicans in their efforts to register preferred voters ahead of the Presidential election. Six weeks after withdrawing from the Republican Presidential race, Nikki Haley received 16.5% of the votes in the Pennsylvania primary. The US Government spent $5 billion on helicopters to transport the President but they are being used elsewhere as they damage the grass at the White House.

Joe Biden’s narrative of how he entered politics seems to be a work of fiction. He also fabricated a story about his uncle being eaten by cannibals after his plane crashed during World War Two, but academics in PNG responded, stating that cannibals wouldn’t “just eat any white men that fell from the sky.”

An American journalist was suspended and later resigned from the partially taxpayer funded NPR following an essay where he highlighted the network’s obvious biases. The CEO of NPR delivered a TED talk where she remarked, “Our reverence for the truth might be a distraction that’s getting in the way of finding common ground and getting things done.” There’s a long history of media stealing from Air Force One, with a recent amnesty offering thieves the opportunity to returns items without consequences. A Brazilian Supreme Court judge has ordered Twitter to shutdown accounts accused of spreading threats and fake news, but Elon Musk is refusing on free speech grounds.

An Iranian rapper has been sentenced to death for calling for revolution as part of the anti-hijab protests of 2022. Two Michigan parents have been sentenced to 10-15 years prison for failing to sufficiently intervene when their son killed four students in a school shooting.

Switzerland is set to hold a referendum on capping its population at 10 million people until 2050. Migration from China’s rural areas to urban areas has significantly slowed.

An American convenience store chain has been hit with a racial bias lawsuit for screening job applicants for criminal convictions. London police threatened to arrest a man for being “openly Jewish” near an anti-Israel protest. A Tasmanian art gallery has been ordered by a tribunal to allow men to enter its “ladies lounge”.

Economics & work

The supposed “success” of Keynesianism lies in justifying government deficits, but it doesn’t stack up compared to other economic perspectives. World War Two didn’t end the Great Depression. Following the establishment of a minimum rate for global corporate taxes, several governments and the IMF are now advocating for global wealth taxes. Botswana boasts the highest GDP per capita in southern Africa by a significant margin, with its economic growth primarily attributed to greater economic freedoms.

Net long term migration to Australia exceeded 100,000 people in February, roughly equivalent to natural population growth for an entire year. Expect to see more tent cities across Australia as population growth continues to outstrip housing supply. With rents increasing much faster than wages, low income earners in Australia are estimated to be spending 54.3% of their income on rent. The Albanese Government’s housing target has no hope of being met without a surge in construction workers, which is near impossible when Australia has low unemployment. The hospitality industry should stop asking for more migrants and start paying their existing employees properly.

American business groups are suing the FTC in an attempt to overturn the agency’s ban on non-compete agreements for regular employees. The Australian government is currently consulting on the potential to legislate similar freedoms for Australian workers. The wave of illegal migration into the US has unusual effects on measures of employment and unemployment.

The US government must face some hard truth about debt and deficits. A 76 minute podcast where former Fed member Thomas Hoenig lays out how to fix the Fed and the budget deficit. Rich Americans don’t see inflation as a big deal whilst low and middle income Americans know it is. Sweden’s central bank has requested $4 billion from its government to cover losses from quantitative easing. Japan’s collapsing currency is the consequence of reckless money printing. With a new government focussed on balancing the budget and crushing inflation, Argentina’s Peso has soared.

Miscellaneous

Wind has surpassed fossil fuels as the UK’s largest electricity generation source. A long story of how one couple converted their entire home from gas to electric. Sweden got the science right on Covid and as a result the economic cost was far lower. Pfizer’s much hyped Covid treatment drug is little better than a placebo.

The first four finishers at the Beijing men’s half marathon have been disqualified after three of the runners slowed down to allow the local favourite to win. 23 of the 30 Chinese swimmers at the 2021 Olympics tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in the lead up to the games, but were allowed to compete after Chinese authorities claimed their food had been accidentally contaminated. An NBA player has been banned for life after betting against his team and assisting someone to bet against his own performance.

Made for advertising websites have polarized the marketing industry, some consider them a scam, while others see value for brands seeking visibility at a low cost. You can now buy sparkling water in a beer can. Costco is doing a roaring trade in gold bars. A Californian man is suing 50 women after they called him a bad date in Facebook group. A German museum worker was fired after he secretly installed one of his own artworks in a bid to get noticed.