Media worth consuming – June 2024

Interesting and under the radar media on finance, economics, politics and society
Jonathan Rochford

Narrow Road Capital

Top Five Articles

Five suggestions that would put strong downward pressure on Australian house prices and rents.

An estimated 43% of job postings in some American industries are fake.

The Californian government has taken legal action to stop a referendum that could restrict governments from increasing taxes without voter approval, arguing voters are too dumb to determine taxation.

The Canadian government plans to spend $12 million eradicating feral deer when locals hunters would gladly do it for free.

Five funny and truthful cartoons about politics.

Finance

US stocks are expensive but they’re not Tech Wreck stupid. The amount of capital invested in low volatility trades has soared this year. US jobs and wages growth are still humming along nicely.

Whilst some private credit is likely to be hit hard in the next downturn, it’s a good thing that that high risk loans are not on bank balance sheets. A Canadian private debt manager has suspended distributions on three funds to rebuild liquidity. A New York office tower has sold for less than $50 million after being purchased for $153 million in 2018, with lenders expected to recover less than 50% of the loan. Japan’s Norinchukin Bank is set to sell down $63 billion of US and European government bonds after incurring significant unrealised losses on long duration bonds. The AAA tranche of a UK shopping centre CMBS is forecast to take a 6% loss with the underlying properties set to be sold for less than the debt owing.

Politics & culture

With clear evidence of perjury from Joe Biden’s son and brother, his Attorney General is under pressure to choose either politics or principle. Jared Kushner’s firm receiving a $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia smells a lot like the influence peddling of the Biden and Clinton families. Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary secretary placed a £100 bet on when the election would be held, three days before the election date was announced. After North Korea sent balloons with trash and manure to South Korea, South Korea responded with pop music and pro-democracy leaflets.

Congress is set to debate whether women should be added to the military draft. The Victorian government’s appointment of a Parliamentary Secretary for Men’s Behaviour Change has received positive global coverage, but it raises the question of who else needs to change their behaviour? Australian Government staff blocked journalist Cheng Lei from attending a media event during the Chinese Premier’s visit to Australia.

Taxpayer funding of stadiums is often said to be throwing good money after bad. Nevada’s Supreme Court has blocked a referendum that would have given voters the chance to reject $380 million of taxpayer funding for a new stadium. Louisiana has passed a law requiring all public school classrooms to display the Ten Commandments. Twelve quotes from Herbert Spencer on the fallacies of statism.

Economics & work

Vietnam went from poverty to being a middle income economy after it ditched central planning and embraced free markets. Neoliberalism delivers solid economic growth and low inflation, which is much better than the stagflation of current times. Don’t blame capitalism for consumer and asset price inflation that were due to central bank errors. Like almost all Western countries, the US Government has a spending problem not a taxation problem.

Entrepreneurs do a great deal of good for society but it’s right to disdain those who become rich by cronyism. The global decline in productivity and economic growth is best explained by the rise in government and a lack of business competition. Government subsidies and regulation have fuelled inflation in America in education, health and housing. In one way of looking at the issue, the US could be back to neutral money supply by the end of 2024.

The RBA Governor said that a per capita recession “isn’t very relevant” but to those whose incomes are falling behind their cost of living it is very relevant. Australia should switch from points based migration to employer sponsored skilled migration with a high minimum salary. By one conservative estimate, Australia is over 200,000 dwellings short of the level needed to keep up with population growth.

Miscellaneous

Five tips on how to distinguish experts from imitators. Denmark has issued a recall for some ramen noodle packets after they were deemed to be poisonous due to excessive chilli

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This article has been prepared for educational purposes and is in no way meant to be a substitute for professional and tailored financial advice. It contains information derived and sourced from a broad list of third parties and has been prepared on the basis that this third party information is accurate. This article expresses the views of the author at a point in time, and such views may change in the future with no obligation on Narrow Road Capital or the author to publicly update these views. Narrow Road Capital advises on and invests in a wide range of securities, including securities linked to the performance of various companies and financial institutions.

Jonathan Rochford
Portfolio Manager
Narrow Road Capital

Narrow Road Capital is a credit manager with a track record of higher returns and lower fees on Australian credit investments. Clients include institutions, not for profits and family offices.

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