No bears here: Why these 12 fund managers are running with the bulls in 2024

James Marlay: And I'm James Marlay. And whether you're a bull, a bear, a tortoise, or a hare, this video is for you.

Ally Selby: In this video, you'll be finding out whether 12 of the country's finest investors are feeling bullish or bearish for the year ahead so that you can navigate a new era of lower growth and higher rates.

James Marlay: Looking forward to 2024, are you bullish or bearish? And why?

Joel Fleming: I'm bullish. Microcaps are the most inefficient part of the market and have been beaten up for a couple of years now. They cover the full spectrum of the economy - and this is the nursery of the next great trend, the next structural changes that are occurring. So it's always been a fantastic place to look for investments, but just given the backdrop of performance, I think the starting point is really strong into 2024.

Vihari Ross: I'm bullish on the stock picking coming into 2024, but I'm bearish just at the level of the benchmark. We saw in 2023, we saw the Magnificent Seven go up by 99%, but an equally weighted benchmark was only up by 6%. That's far less glamorous in terms of results. I think what you've seen is this real dispersion in value, which is the most expensive stocks, versus the cheapest stock. So, looking into 2024, pay heed to valuation. We think that value dispersion will compress. And some of those tailwinds that we had around liquidity this year will actually start to reverse as well. So, I'm really bullish about the performance of that value factor coming into 2024.

Matthew Kidman: I think I'm consensus. I'm very bullish. We've had a couple of hard years, with interest rates rising. Centennial operates mainly in small caps. So I look at the charts just to see what's possible and I think small caps could do 20-25% in the calendar year. The All Ordinaries or the ASX 200, the bigger caps, they've done a bit better. I think that's maybe a 10-15% range. So I think smalls will do better. They do better about once every three years or four years. We're going to get one this year in 2024. 

James Marlay: Time in the sun. 

Matthew Kidman: Yep. 

Ally Selby: You've worked in markets for nearly three decades. You've obviously got a strong view of where the market could be going from that experience. Are you feeling bullish or bearish for the year ahead?

Dr. Philipp Hofflin: I think I've learned something over those 30 years, and that is that what I feel about the market isn't a very good guide. But I can tell you one thing though. If you look at valuations, which is what we really focus on, the market is actually very reasonably priced. Now, the market today is basically flat on the peak in 2007, 16 years ago. It's down 30% in real terms. So, back then, the market was expensive. Today, I think it's priced for double-digit returns for the next decade.

Marc Whittaker: We're super excited about the opportunities available in the small-cap industrial space. The relative valuation between small caps and large caps is as wide as it's ever been. And we're finding some really good examples of what we think are high-quality industrials in that small-cap space. So the likes of ARN Media (ASX: A1N), GUD Holdings (ASX: GUD), and SG Fleet (ASX: SGF) are on single-digit to low double-digit PEs, with 5% plus dividend yields fully franked. We think that's really exciting.

Bob Desmond: We're probably sitting in the middle of the pack. I know that sounds a bit boring, Jimmy, but when I look at the portfolio, valuations are trading in line with their long-term averages. There've been extremes in the market the last few years where investors were pretty bearish in 2021, and then a very positive end to last year. We'd go by valuations. And we'd say valuations are fair at the moment.

Emma Fisher: I should probably disclose my biases upfront. I'm usually bullish. It could be a nuclear Armageddon, and I'd probably be saying, "I think there's some green shoots." I would say I'm feeling optimistic. You look at the settings - valuations don't look stretched and balance sheets look good. I think in any given year, the thing that you can always bet on is that markets are going to be emotional and irrational at some point, because they're made of people, and people are emotional and irrational. So I think just like any year, there'll be good chances to buy good businesses at good prices.

Daniel Sullivan: We feel quite bullish. It has been a consolidating year. So returns are roughly flat, but global equities are up about 20%. So it's a lagging year. It's a reverse of what happened the year prior, but we're quite optimistic going forward. Commodities have been consolidating as well. So, the general commodity index is down about 10%. We think that sets up for a good return going forward. A lot of disruption in commodity production has occurred, and those markets are tightening up. So we think we'll get good support from commodities. And the companies themselves are all positioning themselves to grow and be more efficient at what they do.

Ally Selby: So bullish for small to mid-caps. Not so bullish for larger cap names that have already rallied?

Matthew Haupt: Am I bullish or bearish? I think the year is going to be a battle of the giants in the investment return fields, which are liquidity, rates, and growth. So we're going to have moments of bullishness and moments of bearishness, as all those three factors fight each other. It's going to be a very interesting year ahead in 2024. Normally, you'd have one factor dominating, but it's going to be a fight between the three factors. So it's going to be a very, very interesting year.

James Marlay: And if you had to back one animal, which would it be? The bull or the bear?

James Marlay: Could go a few rounds.

Matthew Haupt: Exactly. It's going to be a long, long year.

Are you feeling bullish or bearish in 2024? Let us know by voting below: