PLS, MIN, IGO and LTR face “more challenging” lithium environment says Morgan Stanley

Over the past 18 months, lithium mineral prices have endured a punishing downturn, casting a long shadow over ASX-listed lithium stocks. Once a darling of the green energy boom, lithium has seen its value erode as oversupply, softening demand in key markets, and shifting industry dynamics have taken their toll.

Companies like Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN), IGO (ASX: IGO) and Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) have faced mounting share price losses as falling lithium minerals prices have ramped up pressure on their respective profitability.

The pressure is likely to persist, suggests Morgan Stanley, whose latest research report, “Lithium: A Tougher Backdrop”, offers a sobering reassessment of the lithium market. The broker concedes it turned “modestly more constructive” on lithium in December in anticipation of supply-side restraint due to lower lithium minerals prices, however, it has been forced to reassess its position as such restraint has not materialised.

Morgan Stanley now sees a market poised for sideways price action rather than a robust rally. This article delves into the firm’s analysis, unpacking the supply-side pressures and demand-side uncertainties shaping lithium’s trajectory.

Lithium market supply side factors

Morgan Stanley’s report highlights a complex supply landscape where initial cuts due to cratering lithium minerals prices have given way to renewed production – now re-exerting downward pressure. Here’s a breakdown of what Morgan Stanley see as the key lithium market supply side factors:

1. Cuts now Restarts: The second half of 2024 saw “accelerating lithium supply cuts and delays,” a response to the prolonged price downturn that began in late 2023. Producers slashed output to stem losses, with Morgan Stanley noting “significant production cuts through 2H 2024” as evidence of supply-side pain. This initially fueled hopes of a market rebalance.

2. CATL’s Mine Restart: A major pivot came with CATL’s decision to restart its Jiangxi lithium mine, which accounts for 6% of global supply (91ktpa). Lithium minerals prices, as well as ASX lithium stock prices, got a boost back in September when the world’s most influential player in the EV battery supply chain announced it would close its Jiangxi mine.

Last month, it resumed operations at the mine despite prices sitting below its RMB105,000/t cost of production. Morgan Stanley initially forecast the mine would remain closed throughout 2025. The broker suggests the restart is being driven by local economic priorities rather than profitability and opines this underscores the fragility of supply discipline among Chinese producers.

Morgan Stanley reports CATL is now running the Jiangxi mine at a 24ktpa run-rate, with plans to ramp this up to 36ktpa. As a result of CATL’s mine restart, China’s lithium minerals production is up by 37% since early February 2025, the broker suggests.

3. Chile’s Elevated Exports: Then there’s Chile, another global lithium supply-side heavyweight. It has also ramped up output through the new year. Morgan Stanley reports that January 2025 exports from the country hit 27.5kt, up 56% year-on-year and 23% month-on-month – the third-highest level on record. With over 75% of Chile’s lithium production destined for China, this surge further floods the market with supply, countering earlier curtailments.

4. Cost Deflation Pushing the Cost Curve Lower: The prolonged lithium minerals price slump has sparked “aggressive cost-cutting across the industry” flattening the global cost curve, says Morgan Stanley, citing a 14% year-on-year drop in spodumene’s all-in sustaining cost (AISC) in 2024 (as per Woodmac data).

The broker provides several industry cost cutting measures including:

• MIN cutting its lithium workforce by 25%, yielding “great cost benefits”

• Sayona Mining (ASX: SYA) reducing its operating costs by 6% quarter-on-quarter

• Albemarle is targeting $300-400 million in savings for 2025

• LTR has flagged $100 million in cuts

As a consequence of the above, suggests Morgan Stanley, is “the 90th percentile of the lithium carbonate cost curve in 2025 has fallen 28% YoY,” making even high-cost producers more resilient at lower prices.

Morgan Stanley argues supply growth remains intact over the longer term. New projects are coming online, bolstering the pipeline:

• Eramet’s Centenario DLE project in Argentina (24ktpa) has started exporting
• Mali’s Bougouni mine (16ktpa) is ramping up
• Ganfeng’s Mariana project (10ktpa) is operational
• Sigma Lithium aims to double capacity by 2026
• The DRC’s Manono project (100ktpa) is progressing swiftly

This robust growth reinforces a bearish supply outlook, undermining hopes of a sustained price rebound absent major disruptions.

Lithium market demand side factors

On the demand front, Morgan Stanley paints a mixed picture, with China driving growth while the rest of the world (“RoW”) faces headwinds.

1. China EV Sales: China remains an encouraging bright spot for lithium bulls, notes the broker. January battery electric vehicle (“BEV”) sales were up 31% year-on-year, buoyed by an extended cash-for-clunkers trade-in scheme that was pushed out from its original December expiry. Those December sales were a record as consumers rushed to beat the original deadline (January sales were down 40% on a month-on-month basis). Looking forward, Morgan Stanley expects China BEV sales to “drive a more meaningful volume contribution from Q2 onward.”

Also helping bolster the lithium demand-side of the equation, is the Chinese energy storage systems (“ESS”) sector. Morgan Stanley notes significant strength here, with China accounting for around 50% of global installations. The broker forecasts 30% global ESS growth in 2025, and that ESS applications will account for 13% of current total lithium demand.

2. Rest of the World (RoW) EV Sales: Beyond China, the outlook dims. Europe shows tentative recovery, with January EV sales up 37% year-on-year – albeit from a low base – as affordability continues to normalise. Morgan Stanley notes two issues to monitor, the first being the European Commission’s decision to extend CO2 targets from 2025 to a three-year window potentially easing pressure on carmakers, and secondly, whether potential subsidies might be introduced.

In the US, risks loom larger. The outlook is “more fragile” suggests Morgan Stanley, who notes the firm’s US autos team recently cut its 2025 BEV penetration forecast to 8.5%, from 9%, citing subsidy uncertainty and regulatory easing. As a result, automakers like Nissan, VW, and Stellantis have delayed or cancelled US production plans.

Morgan Stanley’s auto team is now forecasting 14% year-on-year growth in global BEV sales “which could face downside risks” due to ex-China sales.

Lithium stalemate continues

Morgan Stanley’s latest analysis suggests a lithium market stuck in neutral. Whilst the broker acknowledges supportive EV sales growth in China, it warns that “with supply rebounding, and some demand risks too, lithium price action may be more sideways than upwards from here.”

The combination of restarting capacity, cost-curve deflation, and new supply growth overshadows any present demand resilience, particularly as uncertainties with respect to US BEV sales cloud the horizon. Put simply, without “big supply outages”, the broker believes that a sustainable rally in lithium minerals prices seems elusive.

Despite this perceived “Tougher Backdrop”, Morgan Stanley’s most recent forecasts from December suggest there might still be some modest upside in lithium prices. The broker pegs benchmark lithium carbonate at US$10,000/t through the current quarter, rising to US$12,000/t by the end of the year. This compares to the current spot price of around US$9,100/t.

This article first appeared on Market Index on Wednesday 5 March 2025.