Policy rules point to central banks diverging on rates
A policy rule still points to a slow/shallow rate cut cycle in the US, steady rate cuts in the EA, and that the RBA should hiked a bit more.
A simple policy rule points to a slow and shallow easing cycle in the US, gradual rate cuts in the euro area, and risks around the RBA's conscious decision to raise rates by less than other countries in order to lock in the employment gains of the past few years.
CCI uses a version of the Taylor rule to assess the risks around central bank forecasts for the policy interest rate in the US, euro area, and Australia.
A Taylor rule estimates policy rates based on central bank forecasts for underlying inflation and inflation relative to their respective inflation targets and estimated NAIRUs.
The rule’s estimates are anchored by estimated neutral policy rate in each country, which is where policy rates will end up if central banks successfully return inflation to target and bring demand back into line with supply in each economy.
- In the US, the rule still suggests that the Fed will be slow to cut rates, starting around Q4 2024/Q1 2025, with fewer cuts in total over the next few years than assumed by Fed policy-makers because the neutral rate looks to be higher than pre-pandemic levels.
- In the euro area, the ECB started cutting rates this month and the rule suggests the ECB will continue to slowly ease policy as inflation improves, similar to the market-based profile for interest rates that underpins ECB staff forecasts.
- Australia remains a different story, with the rule still suggesting that the RBA should have raised the cash rate more in the near term.
The divergence in Australia is the result of the RBA board purposefully deciding to raise rates by less than other countries, accepting a slower return to the inflation target in order to retain as much of the gains in employment over recent years as possible.
The risk to this strategy is that interest rates stay high for longer to contain inflation and/or inflation takes longer to sustainably return to the RBA’s 2½% target.
Never miss an update
Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know.
Stay up to date with my current content by
following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire
Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy, contributing to the investment decisions of the firm. Kieran has long experience as a macroeconomist in both the private and public sectors. He has worked most recently as Chief Markets Economist for National Australia Bank and was previously Chief Economist, Australia and New Zealand, for Barclays Bank and ABN Amro Bank/RBS. Kieran also worked as Principal Adviser on the macroeconomy and budget policy in the Commonwealth Treasury and Director of Forecasting.
........
Investment Disclaimer
Past performance does not assure future returns. All investments carry risks, including that the value of investments may vary, future returns may differ from past returns, and that your capital is not guaranteed. This information has been prepared by Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd (ACN 153 327 872). It is general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice. You should not rely on any information herein in making any investment decisions. To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) for the funds should be considered before deciding whether to acquire or hold units in it. A PDS for these products can be obtained by visiting www.coolabahcapital.com. Neither Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd, Equity Trustees Ltd (ACN 004 031 298) nor their respective shareholders, directors and associated businesses assume any liability to investors in connection with any investment in the funds, or guarantees the performance of any obligations to investors, the performance of the funds or any particular rate of return. The repayment of capital is not guaranteed. Investments in the funds are not deposits or liabilities of any of the above-mentioned parties, nor of any Authorised Deposit-taking Institution. The funds are subject to investment risks, which could include delays in repayment and/or loss of income and capital invested. Past performance is not an indicator of nor assures any future returns or risks. Coolabah Capital Investments (Retail) Pty Limited (CCIR) (ACN 153 555 867) is an authorised representative (#000414337) of Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd (CCII) (AFSL 482238). Both CCIR and CCII are wholly owned subsidiaries of Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd. Equity Trustees Ltd (AFSL 240975) is the Responsible Entity for these funds. Equity Trustees Ltd is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ACN 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: EQT).
Forward-Looking Disclaimer
This presentation contains some forward-looking information. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements necessarily involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual performance and financial results in future periods to differ materially from any projections of future performance or result expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Although forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are based upon what Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd believes are reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management’s estimates or opinions should change except as required by applicable securities laws. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
4 topics
Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy,...
Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy,...
Comments
Comments
Sign In or Join Free to comment
most popular
Equities
The 7 zombie companies lurking on the ASX 300
Livewire Markets
Education
Warren Buffett’s 25 biggest mistakes – and 4 lessons they teach
Leithner & Company Ltd