Producer Discipline Suggests Uranium Price Recovery

Most commodities rose solidly (even strongly) during 2016, but uranium missed the party badly – it fell by 41% and hit a 12-year low of $20/lb during November. What a far cry from its peak of $137/lb in mid-2007, when oil hit $150 a barrel and most commodities enjoyed a price surge before being hit by the GFC. Uranium’s fortunes were further decimated by the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan, which triggered something of a global retreat from nuclear power, particularly in Germany. Uranium has since spent the better part of the past decade collapsing in price, despite commentators (including myself) rationalising that prices would/should stabilise as prices plunged below most producers' cost of production. But we might be finally witnessing a uranium renaissance. Prices recovered to $24.50/lb last week after it was announced that Kazakhstan, the world's biggest supplier with 40% of the world market, was going to cut production by 10% (3% of world supply) due to low uranium prices. We are now most likely at the tipping point where uranium prices finally find a floor.