These economists say there is just a 15% chance of a recession in Australia in 2024

There is little doubt that Australia has had a very different story from our global peers throughout this economic cycle. While other central banks chose to go full-throttle with plenty of outsized rate hikes, the Reserve Bank of Australia chose a far more tepid approach. 

The jury is still out on whether this strategy choice was the right one. Most economists seem to agree, for now, that the RBA has nailed the timing. But one group that doesn't agree is the International Monetary Fund, which thinks inflation will track at around 3.6% over the next calendar year and adds that inflation will likely not be back in the target range until December—if we're lucky.

So, who will be right - the RBA or the IMF? 

If our guests on the upcoming episode of Signal or Noise are anything to go by, the small chance that the Australian economy goes into recession is enough for markets to start (or keep) hoping that a Goldilocks situation will eventuate.

Catch this sneak peek video ahead of our next episode of Signal or Noise, which analyses the key macro headlines that have the biggest impact on Australian investors. Our guests for the next episode are AMP's Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina and CBA's Head of Australian Economics Gareth Aird.

Note: This episode was taped on Wednesday 23 October 2024. The main episode will be published on Monday 28 October 2024.

Topics discussed:

1. Are there any SIGNALS in the economic data of late that suggest the RBA has room to cut interest rates this year?

2. If you had to guess, would the Australian dollar finish in 2024 ABOVE or BELOW 70 cents against the US dollar?

3. Will further Chinese stimulus announcements provide an investing SIGNAL for Australian investors? If so, what will those announcements provide signals for?

4. Finally, JPMorgan thinks there will be a 35% chance of a US recession by the end of 2024, while Goldman Sachs thinks there will be a 15% chance. If you had to put a number on it, what would you say is the probability of an Australian recession occurring within the next 12 months?