Relatively speaking, it has been a fairly uneventful week on global markets. No significant new records fell, with the ASX pulling back a touch alongside US markets. There is no cause for concern, however. The bull run remains intact and there has been no new information to cause any increased worry.
Whilst the action has been subdued, the big-ticket items the market is dealing with remain fairly constant – central bank policy, inflation, animal spirits, concentration at the top end and subsequent valuation scrutiny, US tariff uncertainty, and the wildcard – Trump 2.0.
These factors will all carry through until next year, and there will no doubt be new, unforeseen issues to deal with as well. On that front, my colleagues Hans Lee and Vishal Teckchandani have put together some cracking wires this week on the 2025 outlook, and potential unexpected events.
All that said, the path of least resistance is still seen as higher on positive seasonality and macro surprise momentum. Have a great weekend.
14 ASX stocks this outperforming fundie is eyeing in 2025
Ben Richards of Seneca Financial Solutions emphasises diversification over "top stock picks," believing all 30 stocks in his portfolio serve distinct purposes. This approach has driven strong performance for the Seneca Australian Small Companies Fund this year. Despite the healthy results, Richards still sees compelling opportunities in small caps, particularly in a falling rates environment. He points to surprise opportunities in areas like mining royalties and via increased activity in capital markets. In this Rapid Fire interview, Richards discusses standout large and small caps, his best and worst decisions of the year, and where he’s looking for income.
2025 will provide a reality check for markets - and these assets could benefit the most
When Longview Economics' Harry Colvin reviews the year that has passed, he keeps returning to one word: complacency. Colvin observes that strategists have been falling over themselves to be bullish. But this is where Colvin sees differently. He argues next year will see a major rotation in stock market leadership, a tepid rebound in crude oil prices, and a shift away from US equities to other parts of the world. In this Views from The Top, Colvin elaborates on these views and also shares a View that serves as a sage reminder of the value of courage in investing.
This bull market is officially more than two years old - but don’t fret just yet.
Source: Carson Investment Research
Recently, the bull market in US stocks hit an absolutely bonkers milestone. It hit two years (and counting) in length. In that time, the S&P 500 is up a (lazy) 70%. But just because a bull market hits a psychological milestone does not mean it’s done.
This chart shows that bull markets which have made it this far lasted many more years in every single case over the last 50 years. And yes, while many of these bull markets also ended with spectacular crashes (see grey line for a particularly pertinent example), it’s up to you to decide when the party’s over!
If you enjoy our weekly poll, then you’re going to love our 2025 Outlook Series survey.
Each year, Livewire invites readers to participate in Australia’s largest investor survey. This is your opportunity to share insights on key topics, including whether value stocks will outperform tech, market risks, and where we are in the investment cycle.
Complete the survey by 20 December to receive early access to the results, including the most-tipped growth and income stocks, ETFs, and fund manager picks. Plus, you could win 1 of 3 tickets to our flagship investing conference, Livewire Live 2025 (valued at $300 each).
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