US & EA wages growth shows a sharp improvement, with AUS & NZ lagging
Advertised wages growth is at/near pre-COVID levels in the US & EA, while still-high growth in AUS & NZ should improve this year.
One unexpected, but welcome by-product of COVID has been a surge in the availability of high-frequency economic indicators, mainly sourced from the private sector.
Central banks track these series, although their short histories and extreme volatility at the height of the pandemic can make it hard to judge their usefulness.
In the case of labour costs, wages growth adjusted for productivity is a key influence on services inflation given labour is the main cost for many businesses.
On labour costs, employment agencies have been publishing growth in advertised wages for some time.
Encouragingly, on these non-official measures, annual wages growth is broadly back at pre-COVID levels in the US and near them in the euro area.
In contrast, wages growth remains very high in the UK, while improving somewhat in Canada.
Annual wages growth also remains high in Australia and New Zealand - where trend productivity has been disappointing in recent years - although recent lower monthly outcomes point to an improvement this year.
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Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy, contributing to the investment decisions of the firm. Kieran has long experience as a macroeconomist in both the private and public sectors. He has worked most recently as Chief Markets Economist for National Australia Bank and was previously Chief Economist, Australia and New Zealand, for Barclays Bank and ABN Amro Bank/RBS. Kieran also worked as Principal Adviser on the macroeconomy and budget policy in the Commonwealth Treasury and Director of Forecasting.
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Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy,...
Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy,...
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